Bubble Time: Mid-Majors vs Power Conferences
Men's College Basketball Bracketology 2/11
Selection Sunday is only 33 Days Away, and we are just 19 days away from the ASUN Tournament, where as many as 9 teams will compete for a spot in March Madness.
The back-end of the bubble right now is filled with two types of teams:
The mid-major teams like Drake are on a 10+ game winning streak (like Drake in a top 12 conference by KenPom ratings) vs power conference teams with an awful record in Quad 1 games1 (see full list in the footnotes). The good news for the power conference teams is they will likely get plenty more Quad 1 opportunities (or limited chances if they play in the ACC) versus the mid-major teams, who will need to win and avoid Quad 3/Quad 4 losses.
The NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee will likely be evaluating a mid-major versus a power conference team for the last few spots if the bracket has no bid-stealers (I think the conditions are ripe for bid-stealers, but I digress that was last week’s post)
What will they do?
Will they pick an SEC team with a losing conference record like Vanderbilt, Arkansas, or Oklahoma? These three teams, KenPom predicts, will finish 7-11 or worse in SEC conference play. Can Oklahoma make the NCAA tournament with the worst conference win percentage as an at-large team since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985?
Will a fourth or fifth-place ACC team like Wake Forest or SMU, that could finish winning 14 of 15 games, benefit despite having only 1 or 2 Quad 1 wins?
Or will the Selection Committee pick a mid-major like UC San Diego who could finish the season on a 12+ game winning before losing in the Big West Conference final?
Mid-major teams have put themselves in a strong position in recent weeks. Despite a NET outside the Top 40; Memphis has a seven-game winning streak and a 10-2 in Q1/Q2 games. Their WAB ranking is #16 (as of Wednesday’s morning) and could challenge for a #4 seed when the NCAA Selection Committee reveals their in-season bracket on Saturday. Utah State, Saint Mary’s, New Mexico, and Drake also look like their resumes could be stronger than other power conference teams. Even UC San Diego or San Francisco likely have stronger cases for an at-large berth after picking up Quad 1 wins this past week: UC San Diego (at UC Irvine) and San Francisco (vs Saint Mary’s) and in the case of San Francisco they play Gonzaga twice in the next five games starting at Gonzaga on Thursday night. If the Dons sweep those games, maybe they will get their second at-large berth in the last four years.
My current projection has the following.
Last Byes: Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, Wake Forest
(Both Drake and UC San Diego would steal bids if another team won their conference)
Last Four In: Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Georgia, San Francisco
Last Eight Out included both power conference teams and mid-major teams.
Arkansas, BYU, SMU, USC
Boise State, Santa Clara, VCU, UC Irvine….
(after Tuesday’s game- I might add Xavier, Kansas State, and Indiana to the consideration tab and drop Santa Clara)
I do think the SEC will break the previous record set by the Big East and send 12 teams to the NCAA Tournament. I have five SEC teams as top 6 seeds and could see a world where 8 SEC teams end up in the in-season bracket reveal (basically a lock for NCAA Tournament selection next month). SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey will likely still complain that that South Carolina (0-10 in conf. play) is better than 95% of the at-large teams and want the Selection Committee to go back to 1955 and invite teams with losing records like Bradley and Oklahoma City.
Looking forward, I do think Texas and Vanderbilt could be hurt by their Non-Conference Strength of Schedule (SOS), especially if they don’t continue to pick up Quad 1 wins in conference play. I calculate that they likely need about two or three more Quad 1 wins in SEC play to feel confident about their place in the NCAA Tournament. Georgia, Oklahoma, and Arkansas: They need to avoid going 6-12 or worse in conference play since they have out-of-conference wins (St. John’s, Michigan, Arizona, Louisville) that have all appreciated nicely as those teams are leading or near-leading their current leagues.
The bottom line is that any teams that could be on the bubble need to win in February and earn that spot as an at-large team in the tournament. The hottest team in America could be the Kansas State Wildcats, who could get their 4th win over a ranked opponent in the last 6 games tonight at home vs Arizona (update: they did). A team like Nebraska (winning 4 straight after losing 6 straight games) sits more comfortably in the Field of 68 this week, and more teams could be joining them if they earn their right into the NCAA Tournament over the next three or four weeks.
Through Monday’s Games:
Hot Mid-Majors:
Drake: W10
George Mason: W9 (Won 12 of 13 games)
Memphis: W7 (Won 11 of last 12 games)
New Mexico: W6 (Won 13 of last 14 games)
UC San Diego: W5 (Won 17 of last 19 games)
San Francisco: W4 (Won.6 of last 8 games)
Saint Mary’s: Won 11 of last 12 games
Utah State: Won 11 of last 13 games
Gonzaga: 9-3 in last 12 games
UC Irvine: Won 10 of last 12 games
VCU: Won 9 of 10 games
Colorado State: Won 8 of last 10 games
Santa Clara: Won 8 of last 11 games
Boise State: 11-4 in last 15 games
San Diego State: 12-4 in last 16 games
Power Conference Teams Q1 records
Wake Forest (ACC): 1-6
Pittsburgh (ACC): 1-7
SMU (ACC): 0-4
North Carolina (ACC) : 1-10
Xavier (Big East): 1-7
Villanova (Big East): 0-5
Utah (Big 12): 0-8
Cincinnati (Big 12): 1-7
UCF (Big 12): 3-7
Arizona State (Big 12): 3-8
Iowa (Big Ten): 0-9
Penn State (Big Ten): 1-8
Indiana (Big Ten): 2-10
Rutgers (Big Ten): 4-10
Georgia (SEC): 2-8
Vanderbilt (SEC): 2-5