What if the Bubble Doesn't Exist?

Bracketology 2/4

What if the Bubble Doesn’t Exist?

That is my existential question of the day….

68 Teams…we pick that number not because the teams deserve it but we need 68 teams to fill up the NCAA Tournament….So how do we fill that up?

STEP 1) AUTOMATIC BIDS TO MID-MAJORS

Lets give out 10 Automatic Bids to Conference Tournament Champs whose leagues have never gotten an at-large berth.

America East, Big South, Big Sky, Ivy, MEAC, NEC, Patriot, SoCon, Southland, SWAC

Down to 58 spots left

5 Automatic Bids to Leagues that have sent two teams to the tournament but very infrequently and mostly before the NET Era

ASUN, MAAC, MAC, OVC, Summit

After giving out these 15 bids in the above projection - 10 of the 15 bids are #15 and #16 seeds..Ivy League (Yale) Southland (McNeese) SoCon (Samford) could all spring upsets from #12 or #13 seed but likely don’t have at-large resumes

Down to 53 spots left

6 Automatic Bids to Leagues who used to multiple bid leagues but due to conference realignment has lost their top teams and now usually one get one team

Big West, CAA, C-USA, Horizon, Sun Belt, WAC

Ditto with above - UC Irvine (Big West), Cleveland State (Horizon), Grand Canyon (WAC) could all bring upsets from #12, #13 or #14 seed but likely don’t have at-large resumes

Down to 47 spots left

5 Automatic Bids to Leagues who could press for a second berth and regular season champ/conference champ if the same team should end up as a #12 seed or high

American, A-10, MWC, MVC, WCC

Down to 42 spots (37 at-large spots, 5 automatic)…

Lets give the 5 other automatic spots to major conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC) regardless of team

Down to 37 spots

STEP 2) GIVING OUT AT-LARGE BERTHS

1) NET RANKINGS

NET rankings are the ultimate ranking that selection committee uses to rank how good a team’s opponent and in theory the NET rankings are the computer version of the Top 25

NEVER HAS A MAJOR CONFERENCE TEAMS WITH A NET RANKING IN THE TOP 30 BEEN LEFT OUT SINCE NET HAS BEEN USED IN 2019

Going through the NET ranking by conference and these are major conference in the Top 30 of NET you find 28 teams from power conferences

ACC (3): Duke, Louisville, Clemson
Big 12 (6): Houston, Kansas, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Arizona, Baylor
Big East (2): Marquette, St. John’s
Big Ten (8): Purdue, Illinois, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, UCLA
SEC (9): Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas

28 spots filled…9 spots to go

Any mid-major team in the Top 30 of NET (only Indiana State 2024 was left out and that was because of bid thieves)

WCC (2): St. Mary’s Gonzaga

Down to 7 spots to go

2) FILL WITH WAB

If you look past at years who did you beat Quad 1 wins and Q1/Q2 record played a big point. Get to 5 Quad 1 wins or 10 wins against Q1/Q2 teams and you were in.

This year the Selection Committee has WAB (Wins Against Bubble) that does some of this sorting for us.

Lets grab any team in the Top 30 of WAB who was not in the Top 30 of NET and any teams with 5 Quad 1 wins you add up to four teams

5 more spots filled

Big Ten (9): Oregon
Big East (3): Creighton
Big 12 (6): West Virginia
SEC (10): Oklahoma
American (1): Memphis-

Down to 2 spots -

3) POPULAR OPINION: THIS TEAM IS GOOD

A Top 25 team from a power conference has never been left out of the tournament and it is very rare an AP Top 25 team is left out and it usually a mid-major who falls flat in the conference tournament

In this case lets #19 UConn and #22 Mississippi State who just missed out via the NET metrics as Miss State was #31 and UConn was #32

Big East (4): UConn
SEC (11): Mississippi State

Down to ZERO AT-LARGE SPOTS….

STEP 3) BUBBLE VS BID THIEVES

1) Who Do We Have left? In Contention Teams (17 Teams)

Let’s grab any team that has a NET or WAB inside the Top 45

Let’s take the best teams out from these conferences and teams in bold actually do have a NET or WAB ahead inside Top 45 (in bold below and team in italics and bold have both ranking within Top 45) plus any team with striking distance of 5 Quad 1 Wins (three wins) or 10 Q1/Q2 wins (seven wins).

17 teams in consideration and hoping for one of the 37 teams above win their conference tournament to free up a berth….Lets also (MWC, A-10, MVC) since they have teams within the Top 45 of NET or WAB and you have 17 teams in contention for 10 automatic berths that might really be claimed by a team that deserved at large spot

ACC (4): SMU, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Pitt
Big 12 (3): BYU, UCF Arizona State
Big Ten (3): Nebraska, Rutgers, USC
SEC (2): Georgia, Vanderbilt
MWC (3) : Utah State, New Mexico, San Diego State
A-10 (1):VCU
MVC (1): Drake

2)10 Conference Tournaments Matter

THE 5 BEST mid-major conferences: American, A-10, MWC, MVC, and WCC
I mentioned this at the top as the 5 Automatic Bids to Leagues who could press for a second berth and regular season champ/conference champ if the same team should end up as a #12 seed or high. They are ripe for a bid thief if their regular season champ does not win their tournament.

AND THE 5 MAJOR CONFERENCES: Big East, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC

3) BID THIEVES

At this point any team can EARN a bid and right now it could happen more than you think….

3A) Conferences with a very slim chances of bid thieves

MVC and A-10 (2): Drake and VCU will likely need to win their conference tournaments to get into the tournament not having the complete tournament…Both leagues have a few good teams at the top inside the Top 100 of NET and both Drake and VCU have multiple losses already in conference. Both leagues are likely one-bid league and actually would be help by expansion because it allows for teams like Dayton or Drake to trip up in league play and still get a berth.

Big 12: Has no history of bid thieves (a top 25 team has won the Big 12 tournament in every year but in 2019 when Iowa State a top 25 NET team won it)….but the Big 12 has never had 16 teams before

AT- LARGE MATH: If you assume MVC and A-10 are one-bid leagues and 1 at-large spot return from Big 12 for the bubble and lets sort out the 7 automatic bids

3B) A BID THIEF WILL MAKE THE SEMIFINALS OR FINALS

Mountain West: Utah State, New Mexico, and San Diego State are strong bubble teams and insert fourth MWC team (who will be a bid thief)…No matter how you slice it a team playing in the MWC Championship could take a spot away from someone else and even if a team like San Diego State may be headed to Dayton they might win the tournament and send someone else to Dayton.

American: If Memphis does not win the conference tournament..and only one other team in the Top 60 of NET is North Texas on a two game losing streak so there will certainly be at least one bid earner playing on Selection Sunday

West Coast: San Francisco is currently ahead of Gonzaga in the standings and Santa Clara is in the top ten in the nation in three points made (always something to keep in mind for a March Madness upset) and you can add in Oregon State who was a bid-stealer in the Pac 12 in 2021 under same HC Wayne Tinkle (making the Elite Eight at #12 seed) ...there are a strong group of team who could be bid thieves in WCC quarterfinals and semifinals.

ACC: Has had bid thieves in 2022 Virginia Tech and 2024 NC State and will have a bubble team in the semifinals since only 3 teams in the Top 30 of NET (Duke, Clemson, Louisville)

MATH: 4 automatic bids that will likely be between a bid thief and a team in the field…
That leaves 3 automatic bids and 1 at-large berth to sort out

3C) Top 4 Teams are likely NCAA Tournament so they need to go chalk

Big East: Georgetown was a bid thief in 2021 and last year #7 Providence and #5 St. John’s made the semifinals before being eliminated. #5 team in the Big East will get a chance to win 3 games in 3 days and the relative strength of the Big East (zero teams in the NET Top 15) could make it ripe for a bid thief again but history in the Big East since 2014 shows that usually a NCAA Tournament prevails.

Big Ten and SEC: Bubble teams in these conference could come as the #10 seed or lower so will likely need to win five games in five days (UConn 2011 and NC State 2024 were the only teams to win 5 games in 5 days to win a conference tournament and both ended up making Final Four). For the SEC only five times since 1985 has a team won four games in four days to the win SEC tournament and only Georgia 2008 would have been a team outside of the Top 8 of the SEC Standings. The Big Ten a seed outside the Top 8 has never won the conference tournament by winning four games in four day and only Penn State 2023, Illinois 1999 and 2008 made the Big Ten finals after finishing 9th or lower in conference play (Big Tourney first started in 1998). However a run to the semifinals or the finals in the SEC or the Big Ten for a double digit seed or lower may help them like a final at-large spot like Mississippi State in 2024 and Penn State did in 2011 and 2023.

MATH: 3 more automatic bids that should be handed to the at-large pool (First Four Games are at the mercy of no bid thieves in Big Ten, SEC, Big East, and Big 12 )

4) AT-LARGE SPOTS

So with to wrap up- At-Large Bubble Spots are a myth

4 At-Large Bids only return to the field if a team in the field defeats a bubble team in the finals or semifinals (American, WCC, ACC, MWC Regular Season Champ)

4 At-Large Bids return only if Big 12, SEC, Big Ten, and Big East teams hold serve and do not allow a bid thief or have a team make a big run in the Big Ten or SEC…

This is likely the First Four and Last Four Byes…
Looking at the Field of 68 Monday Projection before Pitt’s lost to UVA that likely knocked them out you can the 17 teams in consideration kinda align with the bubble

ACC (4): SMU (First Four Out) , Wake Forest (First Four Out), Pitt(Last Four In), North Carolina
Big 12 (3): BYU (Last Four In), UCF (First Four Out) Arizona State (First Four Out)
Big Ten (3): Nebraska (Last Four Byes), Rutgers, USC
SEC (2): Vanderbilt (Last Four Bye), Georgia (Last Four in),
MWC (3) : Utah State (MWC Auto Bid), New Mexico (Last Four Bye) , San Diego State (Last Four Bye)
A-10 (1):VCU (A-10 auto bid to George Mason)
MVC (1): Drake (MVC auto Bid)

Obviously start with these 17 teams and Drakes wins the MVC title and George Mason defats VCU in the A-10 title.

MATH: Down to 15 teams for 8 spots as VCU is eliminated by not winning A-10

In a bid-stealing scenario
Let’s have North Texas win the American, New Mexico win the MWC , San Francisco win the WCC, and Wake Forest win the ACC…

Bid Stealing Scenario: 13 teams for 4 spots as now Wake Forest and New Mexico have secured their spots by an automatic berth

Non Bid-Stealing Scenario- MATH: 14 teams for 7 spots as one of the three MWC teams above wins that berth.

In the bid-stealing scenarios you could finish it off with…BYU win the Big 12, Nebraska wins the Big Ten, Georgia wins the SEC, and Xavier with Big East…
BID-STEALING MATH: 10 teams for ZERO spots and teams like Utah State, and even Gonzaga if they dont win WCC, San Diego State, Vanderbilt could be sweating Selection Sunday…

14 teams left for 7 spots at play during conference play

Best two metrics on the boards

Georgia and Utah State get in (12 teams for 5 spots)

But let assume you give one spot to the ACC bubble team that makes SFs (lets say Wake Forest)

4 spots…eliminate SMU, UNC, Pitt (down to 8 teams)

Who ever performs the best in the Big 12 among bubble teams (lets say BYU)

3 spots…eliminate UCF, Arizona State (down to 5 teams)

Big Ten tournament - Nebraska has 4 Q1 wins and outperforms Rutgers and USC…

2 spots left (2 teams left)
Vanderbilt and San Diego State

ACC (3): Wake Forest (Last Four In),SMU (First Four Out) , Pitt (First Four Out), North Carolina (Next Four Out)
Big 12 (2): BYU (Last Four in), UCF (FirstFour Out) Arizona State (Next Four Out)
Big Ten (2): Nebraska (Last Four In ), Rutgers (Next Four Out), USC (Next Four Out)
SEC (1): Georgia (Last Four Byes), Vanderbilt (Last Four In)
MWC (3) : Utah State (Last Four Bye) New Mexico (MWC Auto Bid)) , San Diego State (Last Four In)
A-10 (1):VCU (A-10 auto bid to George Mason) (Next Four Out)
MVC (1): Drake (MVC auto bid )

BOTTOM LINE TAKEAWAY

Things will get tight in March and the NCAA Tournament really begins with conference tournament…

IF YOU ARE NOT IN THE NET TOP 30 OR WAB TOP 30: WIN YOUR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT…

IF YOU ARE A MID-MAJOR TEAM WIN YOUR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT based on Quad 1 wins and WAB… MEMPHIS AND SAINT MARY’S MIGHT BE THE ONLY TWO SAFE PROGRAMS

IF YOU A MAJOR CONFERENCE TEAM IF YOU DON’T WIN YOUR TOURNAMENT MAKE THE SEMIFINALS OR FINALS AND PICK UP A COUPLE OF QUAD 1 WINS ALONG THE WAY

FINALLY DO WHAT YOU SHOULD DO IN THE CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT- If San Diego State doesn’t make the Mountain West Semifinals… they will not be going to March Madness…That SEC team that will be #12 and #13 could be in precarious where they play in the 1st round and it is a bubble elimination game…basically the entire conference tournament is the final audition for these in consideration to make their case