Wednesday before Selection Sunday
Men's and Women's Bracketology 3/12
Wednesday before Selection Sunday…
Today is the day that the Selection Committees start meeting in person.
NCAA’s Media Coordinator for March Madness, David Worlock, put this out on social media this morning where he will be for the Men’s Selection Committee meeitng.
As of Wednesday, nearly 50% of the men’s conference tournaments have concluded or will conclude tonight (Big Sky, Patriot, Southland), and that number will be over 50% in terms of women’s conference tournaments. All 31 Division I conferences will have eliminated some teams for the automatic berth by Wednesday night.
CURRENT BRACKET MATH MEN’S CBB:
11 automatic bids1 have been handed and one team that has ended their season, , #19 Saint Mary’s, seems to be a lock for inclusion as an at-large bid.
That means with 4 days left until Selection Sunday, 56 spots (20 automatic and 36 at-large spots) remain in play.
173 teams remain alive in their conference tournament for those 20 automatic spots.
52 of those 173 teams are likely still in consideration for the remaining 36 at-large spots. (David Worlock will usually post on social media how many teams they voted in and considered for at-large berths in the upcoming days. I would expect that combined number to be around 53 and could be as high as 582).
If there are no bid-stealers, most of the 52 men’s teams that I would put under consideration will likely get in the NCAA Tournament. Normally, there is an average of 2 bid stealers a year, mainly from the mid-major conferences, so watch the Mountain West, American, Big West, and A-10 tournaments that begin today for those teams.
Plenty of Bubble teams in action today as some are trying to avoid bad losses while others face some must-win games.
4 MUST WIN GAMES FOR BUBBLE TEAMS
Big Ten: #10 Ohio State (17-14) vs #15 Iowa (16-15)
Big 12: #7 Baylor (18-13) vs #10 Kansas State (16-16)
SEC: #13 Texas (17-14) vs #12 Vanderbilt (20-11)
ACC: #5 North Carolina (20-12) vs #12 Notre Dame (15-17)
IT WOULD BE ADVISED TO WIN BUT COULD BE IN WITH A LOSS
Big 12: #8 West Virginia (19-12) vs #16 Colorado (13-19)
SEC: #9 Arkansas (19-12) vs #16 South Carolina (12-19)
SEC: #14 Oklahoma (19-12) vs #11 Georgia (20-11)
HOW MANY LOSSES CAN AN AT-LARGE TEAM HAVE?
Below is a list of schools since 1985 that have had 14 or more losses and under 20 wins and were selected as at-large teams in the men’s NCAA Tournament.
On the right is the lowest winning percentage for at-large teams selected.
This is important for both Ohio State and Texas, with losses Wednesday, both Ohio State and Texas would tie or set the record (if they were selected) in both categories : most losses (15) and lowest-winning percentage (.531) for at-large teams, so given that historical perspective3, both teams likely need to win two games this week for them to be included as an at-large team.
AUTO BIDS IN PLAY ON WEDNESDAY
Southland Championship: McNeese vs Lamar (5PM, ESPN2).
McNeese will need to win the Southland to make the NCAA Tournament but could be a #12 seed like last season.
Patriot: Navy at American (7PM, CBS Sports Network)
Navy (15-18) is looking to win their third straight true road game in the Patriot League Conference Tournament and faces off with Patriot regular season champion American.
Big Sky: Montana vs Northern Colorado (1130PM, ESPN2)
These two teams were regular season co-champions and split the regular season series, with the visiting team winning each time.
Predicted Bracket as of March 12:
WOMEN’S COLLEGE BASKETBALL
13 automatic berths have been handed out and three more automatic berths will be handed out tonight.
Because the power conference tournaments were first most bubble teams are not playing any more games this week.
By my math, 108 teams are left playing in conference tournaments, and there are 20 bubble teams in play for three at-large spots. (9 bubble teams finished their regular season, while 7 bubble teams could be in line to win their conference championships like Montana State and South Florida tonight).
Big Sky: Montana vs Montana State (5 pm, ESPNU)
American: Rice vs South Florida (7pm, ESPNU)
MWC: Wyoming vs San Diego State (1030 pm, CBS Sports).
Upsets continue to dominate the mid-major tournament.
We have already seen four conference tournaments where the #1 seed and regular season was upset before the finals (American: Rice beat UTSA in QFs, San Diego State beat UNLV in SFs) and the Sun Belt where the #1 seed James Madison was upset in the final. See my case for JMU as at-large from yesterday. Regular season conference champions seeded along the #13/#14 seed line: Ball State (MAC), Norfolk State (MEAC), SE Louisiana (Southland) will try to advance into the semifinals with some late morning/early afternoon tips.
Oregon State clinched the West Coast bid by defeating #2 seed and WCC co-champ Portland in the finals, yesterday. The Beavers, a great March story, recovering from a slow start and losing many of their top players from last year’s Elite Eight run to the portal, won back-to-back buzzer beaters before defeating the Pilots. Portland with 29 wins during the regular season will likely set the record for the most wins not to be selected as an at-large team in the NCAA Tournament (men’s or women’s). Portland’s record was inflated by a NonConference SOS of 348, and they only played one game against a Top 100 team all year long (a win over Princeton).
Other Bubble Teams in Action
MAAC: Fairfield (25-4) vs Manhattan (Noon, ESPN+)
MAAC: Quinnipiac (26-3) vs Iona (230 PM, ESPN+)…
Quinnipiac’s NET (98) makes them an unlikely bubble team, but they are 5-2 in Q2/Q3 games (no Quad 1 games played), and they have wins over Harvard, Princeton (both bubble teams), and two other teams likely in the field (SE Louisiana, and Fairfield). Their three losses included two in overtime (Miami (FL) and Mount St. Mary’s), and a game on the road at Fairfield.
C-USA: MTSU (24-7) vs Kennesaw State (3 PM, ESPN+)
WAC: Grand Canyon (29-2) vs Utah Tech (3PM, ESPN+)
Auto Bids Clinched for Men’s NCAA Tournament Tuesday: (4 now 11 overall)
Gonzaga (West Coast Conference):
Gonzaga has played in 29 of the last 30 West Coast Conference finals. The Zags moved to 22-7 in the West Coast Conference final (they last did not appear in the WCC final in 1997). Gonzaga will now be looking to be their tenth straight Sweet 16 appearance in the 64-team tournament era.
St. Francis (PA) (NEC)
St. Francis (PA) (16-17) will enter the NCAA Tournament with a losing record and will likely play in the First Four in Dayton. Since 2001, when the NCAA Tournament expanded to 65 teams, there have been 13 teams with losing records qualified for the NCAA Tournament by winning their conference tournament, and they are 9-3 in Opening Round/First Four Games.
UNCW (CAA)
UNC Wilmington Seahawks qualify for their 7th NCAA Tournament. The Seahawks ended with 27 wins (tied for the second most in school history) but will likely be on the #14-seed line due to a non-conference SOS of 322 and playing only one Quad 1/Quad 2 game this season (an 18-point loss at Kansas in November.)
Robert Morris (Horizon)
Robert Morris will enter the NCAA Tournament on a ten-game winning streak (16 of their last 17 games) after denying Youngstown State a chance for their first NCAA Tournament berth.
The combined number of teams voted in and considered will likely also include Saint Mary’s (regular season done). I would imagine teams Nebraska and San Francisco, fringe bubble teams whose regular seasons are over, and some mid-major regular season champions like George Mason or Liberty may be considered even though they are not likely to be teams in the field. Also, if you noticed Lunardi’s bracket on ESPN this morning, he had in consideration Villanova (Big East), Cincinnati (Big 12), SMU (ACC), North Texas (American) who likely will need to win their conference title to pass teams above them given some bad losses on their resume.
One of the coolest things I learned this year is that Dan Gavitt and David Worlock spend a lot of their time in the room offering historical perspective to Committee Members if they ask for it.