Too Big for Brisbane

What Olympic Disciplines could get cut before the 2032 Brisbane Games as the IOC looks to shrink the program ?

The 2028 Los Angeles Games will feature an Olympic record

353 events
36 sports
58 + sport disciplines¹

Competition will also start 4 days before the Opening Ceremony which is the earliest start for the Summer or Winter Games since the 1952 Helsinki Summer Olympics.²

When the 2032 Summer Games were awarded to Brisbane in 2021, the Olympic Organizing Committee only had 28 sports (47 sport disciplines) on the official Olympic program

The IOC Executive Board did not announce any cuts at their press conference on Thursday, May 7, but laid out a framework for which sports disciplines could be removed from the Summer and Winter Olympics.

The IOC Working Group on the Olympic Program, set up by the IOC Executive Board, cited three main objectives in making decisions about the Olympic program:

1. Framework to control the size of the Games

   1. Three years ago, I theorized that the Summer Olympics might need to move a three- week format starting with the 2032 Brisbane Games as events and sports were being added to the Summer Games at a pace not seen since pre-World War II. IOC President Kirsty Coventry dismissed Olympic expansion at the IOC's most recent press conference, saying in part: “This is our product. ... We can't continue to just get bigger, bigger, bigger, bigger…”

2. A pathway for the sports to be able to enter into the Olympic program and for sports to be removed from the Olympic program

   1. The working group stated the current pathways are not cleared

3. All those decisions can be understood by all stakeholders (transparency- see slides below)

   1. The first thing the Olympic Program Working Group unveiled was a definition of a Sport Discipline

   2. By linking venues and disciplines together they think they can clearly how the changes to adding/removing a sport discipline would affect the budget of an Organizing Committee for the Olympic Games (OCOG)

The slide below defines the 2024 Paris Games with the current IOC definition of sport disciplines, excluding the four sports (breaking, climbing, skateboarding and surfing) that were added by the host nation for the Paris Games and the five sports added by the LA Organizing Olympic Committee for the 2028 Summer Games (baseball/softball, cricket, flag football, lacrosse and squash)

IF YOU FACTOR IN THE SPORTS AND DISCIPLINES THAT WILL BE FEATURED AT THE UPCOMING 2028 LOS ANGELES GAMES, that NUMBER WOULD MOVE UP TO 36 SPORTS and AT LEAST 58 DISCIPLINES³

If the number one objective is to control the size of the Games… there could be 10 to 15 sports disciplines cut before the 2032 Brisbane Games, and this number could be larger if the IOC wants to give future Olympic Organizing Committees some leeway to add a few sports…By laying out the Olympic Program Working Group, the IOC signaled that these cuts to both the Summer and Winter Games would be strategic rather than doing the following

CUT ALL THE NEW SPORTS

The simplest way the 2032 Brisbane Games could return to 28 sports is just removing the eight sports added to the 2028 LA program since the 2024 Paris Games (baseball/softball, climbing, cricket, flag football, lacrosse, skateboarding, squash, surfing). However, given how the IOC is putting forward this Working Group they see the value in some of these new sports that were added to the Olympic program

MOVE SOME DISCIPLINES FROM THE SUMMER TO WINTER GAMES

The IOC also announced that there would be no crossover sports at the 2030 French Alps Games, but did not rule out the possibility that this could change at the 2034 Utah Games. IOC President Kirsty Coventry: "The (Olympic Program Working Group), in phase two of their work, will look at all avenues. And yes, that would potentially lend itself to 2034." By doing it in two phases, it should eliminate a scenario in which the Olympic Program Working Group removes sports to shrink the size of the Summer Games while simultaneously expanding the definition of sports included in the Winter Games, allowing those cut sports or sport disciplines to join the Winter Olympics. For example, they couldn’t move handball to the 2034 Utah Games removing it from the 2032 Brisbane Games.

CUT BY VENUE (WHAT THEY ARE DOING)

Brisbane 2032 President Andrew Liveris mentioned in February that sport disciplines with existing venues or low-footprint might be the most attractive to 2032 Brisbane Games, and this approach is being taken by Olympic Program Working Group. This approach should level the playing field between a sport discipline that has a history with the Summer Olympics dating back to 1896 or just joined the Olympic program in the last ten years.

MOST VULNERABLE SPORT DISCIPLINES

1. Modern Pentathlon

   (Single Discipline Sport, 2 events, 64 athletes- 32 per gender)

   Modern Pentathlon was invented by the founder of the Olympic Games, Baron Pierre de Coubertin, who conceived it to combine the five factors needed to be a 19th-century soldier. Part of the Olympic program since 1912, when the men’s event debuted (the women’s event was added in 2000), the sport was left off the original 2028 LA Games program because of an incident of horse mistreatment at the Tokyo Games. Modern Pentathlon dropped equestrian and now will feature an obstacle course in Los Angeles. UIPM, the sports federation for Modern Pentathlon, introduced a more compact, TV-friendly single-stadium format to replace the old one-day format. What this format means for Modern Pentathlon is that it now requires a stadium equipped with a temporary pool, temporary fencing piste, a cross-country/shooting course and an obstacle course rather than using pre-existing venues already set up for swimming, shooting, or fencing.

2. Equestrian (Eventing)

   (Multi Discipline Sport, 1 event, 65 athletes - equestrian is an open sport- both females and males compete in the same event)

   Eventing has also been part of the Olympic program since the 1912 Stockholm Games, and the sport combines dressage, jumping, and cross-country. The cross-country venue requires a separate venue for just one-third of one event.

3. Cycling (Mountain Biking)

   (Multi Discipline Sport, 2 events, 72 athletes - 36 per gender)

   Mountain biking was added to the Olympic program starting with the 1996 Atlanta Games. The discipline requires a separate outdoor venue, usually one that seats 5,000 to 20,000 spectators and is not shared with another sport.

4. Squash

   (Single Discipline sport, 2 events, 64 athletes- 32 per gender)

   Squash will make its Olympic debut at the 2028 LA Games after the previous four Olympics (London, Rio, Tokyo, Paris) had decided against it. It requires a separate venue, and the event, which has been featured at the World Games⁴ since 2005, shares its venue with another sport (racquetball). The toughest uphill for squash is that the two fastest-growing racquet sports, padel and pickleball, are seeking IOC recognition for their sport federations and inclusion in the Olympic program at the 2032, 2036 or 2040 Summer Games.

5. Lacrosse

   (Single Disciple sports, 2 events, 132 athletes- 64 per gender)

   Like Squash, lacrosse (sixes) received support in the 2028 LA Olympic Program due to its history and popularity in North America. It will share its venue with flag football for the 2028 LA Games but because the 2028 LA Games added 5 team sports⁵ that needed outdoor stadiums- soccer and softball will be primarily in stadiums not in Los Angeles.

6. Baseball

7. Softball

   (Multi Discipline sport, 2 events, 234 athletes- 144 men (6 teams for baseball), 90 women (6 teams for softball)

   Baseball and softball were removed from the Olympic program after the 2008 Beijing Games. The host nation has added the two sport disciplines in two of the last three Olympic Games (2020 Tokyo, 2028 Los Angeles) because of popularity in those countries. Softball and baseball require different fields, so unless the host nation has existing stadiums for them, a host nation outside the Americas or Asia might use an existing stadium to host another Olympic sport, such as rugby, cricket, or soccer.

8. Weightlifting

   (Single Discipline Sport, 12 events, 120 athletes - 60 per gender- 10 per event)

   One of the original nine sports at the first modern Olympic Games in 1896, Weightlifting has been contested at every Games since 1920 and added women’s weightlifting in 2000. Like Modern Pentathlon, Weightlifting was left off the initial 2028 LA Program because of doping scandals that have plagued the sport in recent Olympics. IOC President Kirsty Coventry has a strong anti-doping stance, mentioning as an athlete who competed at her last Olympics in 2016 in the heart of the Russian doping scandal. The one advantage of weightlifting is that it can be set up in a convention center or an existing venue; for LA28, it will be hosted at the Peacock Theater, which annually hosts the Primetime Emmys, so removing this sport would be due to factors beyond the venue cost.

9. Wrestling (Greco-Roman)

   (Multi Discipline sport, 6 events, 96 athletes- all male)

   Greco-Roman Wrestling was one of the original nine sports at the first modern Olympic Games in 1896, but did not return to the Olympic program again until 1908. The Olympic Working Group's definition of discipline centers on the field of play, yet Greco-Roman and freestyle wrestling are separated by distinct pools of athletes competing in both disciplines. Wrestling was briefly dropped from the Olympic program in February 2013 before being added back later that year, but the IOC Working Group’s decision to isolate Greco-Roman as a male-only sport discipline could make it vulnerable to being cut again.

10. Gymnastics (Rhythmic Gymnastics) OR

    (Multi Discipline sport, 2 events, 94 athletes- all female)

    Aquatics (Artistic Swimming)

    (Multi Discipline sport, 2 events, 96 athletes⁶)

    If the Olympic Program Working Group chooses to cut Greco-Roman wrestling they could reasonably look at removing a female-only sport such as Rhythmic Gymnastics and Artistic Swimming.

    Both sports made their Olympic debut at the 1984 Los Angeles Games, when women's sports were greatly underrepresented in the Olympic program. The 2028 Los Angeles Games are scheduled to see more women athletes than male athletes, making it possible to cut a female-only sport.

    Rhythmic Gymnastics, which can be competed in the same venue as Artistic Gymnastics, has been moved to share a smaller stadium with badminton in four of the last six Olympic Games, which could factor into the Olympic Working Group's decision to possibly eliminate Rhythmic Gymnastics. The elimination of Rhythmic Gymnastics could allow FIG, the sports federation for gymnastics, to add either more trampoline events or a growing sport like parkour to the Summer Olympic Games.

    Artistic Swimming allowed male athletes in the team event at the 2024 Paris Games, but no team named a male athlete to the final team. They also tried to add mixed duet, an event competed at the World Aquatics Championships, as a separate event unsuccessfully to the 2028 LA Games.

11. Surfing

    (Single discipline sport, 2 events, 48 athletes-24 per gender)

    IOC President Coventry mentioned that a spread-out Olympics puts more stress on broadcasters and others to cover the Games. Surfing, which was hosted in Tahiti for the 2024 Paris Games, has become the example of a spread-out Olympic Games. Surfing could be in a position where it is removed from the Olympic program for the 2032 Brisbane Games but added back in as a sport discipline by the host nation due to the popularity in Australia.

12. Rowing (Coastal Beach Sprints)

    (Multi discipline sport, 2 events, 64 athletes-32 per gender)

    Rowing added Coastal Beach Sprints for the 2028 LA Games. Because it requires a separate location and a separate set of athletes, it could easily be cut from the Olympic program for the 2032 Brisbane Games. World Rowing, the sports federation for rowing, has not yet endorsed the proposed rowing location at the 2032 Brisbane Games.

13. Cycling (BMX Racing)

    (Multi discipline sport, 2 events, 48 athletes- 24 per gender)

14. Athletics (Race Walking)

    (Multi discipline sport, 2 events, 96 athletes - 48 per gender)

    Cycling and Track and field are two of the most popular Olympic sports but both these sports disciplines require a separate venue for the event.

15. Aquatics (Open Water Swimming) OR

    (Multi discipline sport, 2 events, 44 athletes-22 per gender)

    Triathlon

    (Single discipline sport, 3 events, 110 athletes- 55 per gender)

    Water conditions, such as the unfavorable conditions in the Seine River for the 2024 Paris Games, are the biggest factor if these two sport disciplines were left in the Olympic program. They do share the same venue and usually require an outdoor temporary venue.

THE ABOVE CUTS WOULD DROP THE SUMMER OLYMPIC PROGRAM BY

15 sport disciplines (7 sports)
40+ events

An Olympic program of 28 sports (45 sports disciplines) and 310 events would allow for a few sport disciplines or events to be added by the host city and could cut just about 10 stand-alone venues.

JUST MISSED THE TOP 15 BUT COULD BE VULNERABLE

16. Canoe Slalom

17. Sailing

18. Field Hockey

19. Soccer (Football)

20. Boxing

21. Rugby

Canoe Slalom could have a venue problem, as it currently hosts 6 events at a single venue that might need to be built, whereas some of the other sports disciplines above host only 2.

World Sailing, the sports federation for sailing, is aggressive in changing its Olympic program to make the sport more TV-friendly and reduce its carbon footprint so they preemptively add a popular SailGP class to the current program.

Field Hockey requires a synthetic turf, so does a temporary field to be installed, and usually a temporary stadium for the host city.

Soccer could be the most surprising on this list. The IOC called out soccer’s international schedule before the 2028 LA Games as nations including as the U.S. men used their top players for other top international events like European Championships and Copa America and not the 2024 Paris Games. The men’s tournament for the 2028 LA Games is featuring 4 fewer teams, and the IOC might reiterate that the Summer Olympics are not about hosting the best U-23 tournament in the world.

Boxing, with the formation of a new federation, World Boxing, might have cleaned up some of the recent problems with judging and management that have plagued the sport over the last twenty years. In recent Olympics, the popularity of boxing has seen later rounds at Wembley Stadium and Roland Garros.

Rugby has made changes to the rugby sevens series to save financial costs. If the Olympic Working Group were to look at financial support from a sports federation, it might move rugby behind cricket and flag football, both of which were added to the Olympic program for the 2028 LA Games. In terms of venue, rugby can share an existing stadium and has shared its venue with the following sports over the last four Olympics: modern pentathlon (Rio), soccer/modern pentathlon (Tokyo), track and field (Paris) and archery (Los Angeles).

THE WILDCARDS
(At least 6 sport disciplines)

Cricket
Flag Football
Climbing (Boulder, Lead, Speed)
Skateboarding (Street, Park)
Archery (Compound)

Will the Olympic Program Working Group add sports disciplines that have not yet appeared on the Olympic program?
That is the question for cricket and flag football

Cricket will likely be at the 2032 Brisbane Games due to its popularity in Australia and there is a strong chance that the IOC adds the sport to the Olympic program. Cricket does require a separate venue due to the dimensions of the field, but with India mounting a serious bid to host the 2036 Summer Olympics, it might make sense to add cricket to the Olympic program.

The NFL’s backing of flag football, including its regular-season game in Australia during Week 1, could help it become a permanent part of the Olympic program, or at least be included in the 2032 Brisbane Games. Another advantage of flag football is that it can be played in a soccer stadium with minimal modifications.

Climbing and Skateboarding are both part of the four-city Q-Series for the 2028 LA Games. They do require temporary structures, but the cost is usually minimal and can be shared across multiple sports. At time when the IOC is rethinking the Youth Olympic Games, IOC President Coventry said on Q-Series: “We believe the Olympic Q-Series will be really exciting for fans and for the host cities. The fans will be right there with the action – the festival feel, the sport, music, culture – coming to life in iconic cities.”

Mixed Team Compound Archery was added to the Olympic program for the 2028 LA Games. World Archery, the sports federation for archery, used the current athlete quota to carve out a sixth event in compound, and there is a chance that the Olympic Program Working Group would still consider archery a single discipline sport and categorize its disciplines as target and field archery (held in the World Games), much like shooting.

SHOULD BE SAFE (20 sport disciplines)

Archery (Recurve), Badminton, Basketball (3x3), Canoe Sprint, Cycling (BMX Freestyle), Equestrian (Jumping, Dressage), Fencing, Golf, Gymnastics (Trampoline) Handball, Judo, Rowing, Shooting (Target Shooting, Shotgun), Table Tennis, Taekwondo, Tennis, Volleyball (Beach), Wrestling (Freestyle)

Besides golf and tennis, which have strong backing from professional leagues, most of these sports share their playing fields with other sports, so the venues can be used for the full two weeks of the Summer Olympics.

VERY VERY SAFE (10 sport disciplines)

Aquatics (Swimming, Diving, Water Polo), Athletics (Track and Field, Marathon), Basketball (Basketball), Cycling (Road, Track), Gymnastics (Artistic), Volleyball (Volleyball)

1. The IOC decided to define a sport discipline differently from how Olympedia or the International Society of Olympic Historians had defined it at previous Olympics. Based on the IOC definition of sports discipline, it could be up to 61 sports disciplines.

2. 23 nations competed in the men’s basketball tournament in the 1952 Helsinki Games. After the 1952 Games, nations had to qualify for the Summer Olympics in men’s basketball based on previous results, usually tied to the World Championships or other qualifying tournaments. This practice is now common for all sports.

3. Given the definition of the disciplines put forward by the IOC’s Working Group looking at the Olympic program, it is unclear if climbing (boulder, lead, speed) would count as a single discipline, and archery (with the addition of mixed compound)- if they did, it would be 61. It is safe to assume skateboarding (street, park), rowing (rowing, coastal beach sprints), and baseball/softball would all count as multi discipline sports and cricket, flag football, squash and lacrosse would count as single discipline sports.

4. Quadrennial event for sport disciplines that are not in the Olympic Games started in 1981- Over 10 sports that will be on the Olympic program at the 2028 LA Games were first featured at the World Games

5. Baseball, Cricket, Flag Football, Lacrosse and Softball

6. The athlete quota for the 2028 LA Games is 20 male and 76 female since the mixed team can have two male athletes. This was introduced at the 2024 Paris Games yet no teams brought a male athlete