THE SUMMER OLYMPICS ENTER A NEW ERA
Team USA Tracker: May 17, 2024
As a seventh grader; I did a history project on the History of the Olympics. It was right after the centennial Olympics in Atlanta and the project I did with a classmate mapped out how the Summer Olympics were a perfect historical event that combined both the emotions of human triumph and human tragedy.
Obviously I was hooked on the history of the Olympics as a teenager but that is why I am intrigued by the inaugural Olympic Qualifier Series that kicked off in Shanghai, China.
4 Olympic sports (sport climbing, skateboarding, BMX Freestyle, and breaking) will two events in Shanghai and Budapest to cut a field of 454 athletes down to 158 athletes for the Olympics.
Argentina’s Valentina Aguado just out of last Olympic qualification spot on Day 1 on Sport Climbing summed up the Olympic Qualifier Series as the following
“ it is kind of an Olympic event, the Olympic spirit is around”
There are high stakes as nearly 65% of athletes that will attend will not reach their final goal of qualification for the Paris Olympics. This last chance to qualify for the Olympics takes on extra importance to these nations on the bubble of just making the Olympics the same way regional World Cup qualification might mean for small nation like Iceland or Jamaica who each only have made one World Cup in their history.
For Team USA they have 39 athletes competing for a maximum of 20 spots. 12 of those spots are in skateboarding park and street where it is more a like an Olympics trials for nations like United States and Japan who are expected to qualify a complete team. Sport climbing and Breaking- Team USA athletes are competing for one spot per gender and BMX Freestyle brings the interesting dynamic where Team USA needs to have 2 athletes per gender in the Top 6 to send a full 4 person team to Paris.
BMX Freestyle: Perris Benegas, Hannah Roberts, Angie Marino, Nick Bruce, Marcus Christopher, Justin Dowell
Sport Climbing; Speed: John Brosler, Zach Hammer, and Noah Bratschi
Sport Climbing; Combined: Brooke Raboutou, Annie Sanders, Kyra Condie, Kylie Cullen
Breaking: B-Boy Jeffro (Jeffrey Louis), B-Boy Gravity (Miguel Rosario), B-girl Logistx (Logan Edra), B-girl La Vix (Vicki Chang)
Skateboarding Park: Gavin Bottger, Jagger Eaton, Tate Carew, Tom Schaar, Liam Pace, Taylor Nye, Minna Stess, Bryce Wettsein, Ruby Lilley, Grace Marhoefer, Jordyn Barratt, Lillian Erickson
Skateboarding Street: Nyjah Huston, Jagger Eaton, Alex Midler, Chris Joslin, Braden Hoban, Jake Illadi, Women: Paige Heyn, Mariah Duran, Poe Pinson, Megan Guy
The start of the Olympic Qualifier Series and the decision by World Athletics to pay their gold medal winners for the first time ever in Olympic history. World Athletics President Seb Coe1 said “It’s really important that, where possible, we create a sport that is financially viable for our competitors” in making the announcement. Historians will likely look back at Paris 2024 and LA 2028 as transitional Olympic games that set up a new Era in Olympic history.
Some More HISTORY with Team USA in Paris
SYDNEY MCLAUGHLIN-LEVRONE: NBC’s Nick Zaccardi broke the news that Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone will run the 400m hurdles at Paris 2024. Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone will look to become the first woman to repeat as an Olympic Champ in the hurdles since 1956 when Shirley Strickland de la Hunty of Australia repeated as Olympic Champ in the 80m hurdles (it has never happened in 400m hurdles). The last man or woman to win back to back 400m hurdles Olympic golds was 64 years ago when American Glenn Davis won the 400m hurdles at the 1956 and 1960 Olympics.
Taylor KNIBB: Taylor Knibb qualified for two different sports at the same Olympics (road cycling and triathlon) and will become the first Team USA athlete since Rob Stull in 1988 (Modern Pentathlon and Fencing) (h/t Nick Zaccardi, OlyMADmen). Taylor Knibb is the only US woman post World War II to compete in two different sports at the SAME Summer Olympics and becomes the third athlete to accomplish the feat since 1948 joining Stull and Bob Hughes (1956 Swimming and Water Polo). Before WWII nearly 50 US athletes per OlyMADmen have competed in two different sports at the Summer Olympics with the popular doubles of water polo/swimming and tug of war/athletics (usually they competed in discus) leading the way for Team USA. In recent years - Team USA athletes have won medals and competed at two sports at the Summer and Winter Olympics like Eddy Alvarez (baseball/short track speedskating) and Lauryn Williams (athletics/bobsled) given the 2 year stagger of Winter and Summer Olympics.
In a Crazy but True Stat: Since Triathlon entered the Olympic program nearly 25% (3 out of 13) of the US women who made the triathlon team have made the Summer Olympics in another Olympic sport. In addition to Knibb - this list includes - Julie Swail-Ertel (Water Polo) and Sheila Taormina (Swimming, Modern Pentathlon).
Qualification Update
Australia did not name Men’s Badminton Singles player Ricky Tang to the Summer Olympics and left unclaimed a continental quota for Oceania in men’s singles.
Why does this matter to Team USA? This should mean that Rio Olympian Howard Shu should qualify in Men’s Singles and Team USA will compete in all five badminton events for only the 2nd Olympics ever (also at the Rio Olympics)
Follow the link to see my updates on what events Team USA has qualified in, who has qualified for Team USA re Paris, and how many medal Team USA could win?
For those who care to read more about I broke down the Modern Summer Olympic Games (into Four Eras) basing them on ten factors: Length, Olympics Held, Locations, Medal Leader, TV Coverage, Athletes, Qualification, Gender Parity, Timing, Olympic Program - I wrote an in-depth look into Era but for those who don’t want to read it here is TL; DR chart
Enjoy and feel free to send any comments
TL; DR: FOUR ERAS OF OLYMPIC HISTORY
IN FOCUS: FOUR ERAS OF THE MODERN OLYMPICS GAMES
ERA I: 1896-1944: Pre WWII Olympics
ERA II: 1948-1988: Cold War Games
ERA III: 1992-Present: RISE OF CHINA
ERA IV: Likely 2032: THE NEXT FRONTIER
ERA I: 1896-1944: Pre WWII Olympics
Athens 1896, Paris 1900, St. Louis 1904, London 1908, Stockholm 1912, Berlin 1916 (canceled), Antwerp 1920, Paris 1924, Amsterdam 1928, LA 1932 Berlin 1936, Helsinki 1940 (canceled), London 1944 (canceled)
LENGTH: 40 years
OLYMPICS HELD: 10 Olympics Held; 3 other Olympics canceled because of WWI and WWII
LOCATION: Olympics were held only in Europe and the United States. The first two Olympics after the 1896 Athens Olympics were held as a background events to the 1900 and 1904 World Fair that were happening in Paris and St. Louis.
The 1936 Olympics were held in Nazi Germany per the great Olympics historians at OlyMADmen - Hitler wanted all future Olympic games to be held in Germany and planned to build a 400,000 seat Olympic stadium.
MEDAL LEADER: 7 of the 10 Olympics in this time period the host country won the gold medal and/or the most medal count (1896, 1900, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1932, 1936). When the host country didn’t have the most medals - Team USA won the most gold medals including five straight Olympics from 1912 to 1932 only stopped by Nazi Germany in 1936.
TV COVERAGE: No American TV Coverage. First Radio Coverage of the Olympics was the 1924 Paris Olympics (only to radios in France). But by 1936 Olympics- radio coverage of the Olympics was popular in America and closed circuit television cameras broadcasted events around Berlin and the Olympic Village
ATHLETES:: Professional athletes were not allowed. Jim Thorpe was deemed the “ the greatest athlete in the world” by the King of Sweden in 1912 after dominating the decathlon but was stripped of his two gold medals (they were later given back posthumously in 1983) in 1913 because he had been paid to play minor league baseball.
QUALIFICATION: The first 5 Olympics there were no country quotas. For example, at the 1904 Olympics in St. Louis - Team USA swept the men’s water polo in 1904 with the New York Athletic Club, Chicago Athletic Association, and the Missouri Athletic Club all winning medals (they didn’t allow the German team because it wasn’t a club team). It was until the 6th Summer Olympics held (1920 Antwerp Summer Olympics) where the invention of a quota on how many athletes from each country could compete in an individual event. As a result of the 1920 caps- The United States started Track & Field and Swimming Trials. In the case of track and field the modern day limit of three athletes per event started at the 1932 LA Olympics.
GENDER PARITY: NON EXISTENCE Women did not compete in Athens 1896 and by LA 1932 Babe Didrikson who dominated track and field was limited on the number of events she could enter at the Olympics. The first few IOC Presidents including Pierre de Coubertin were against the idea of women competing in the Olympics.
TIMING: Events in the Olympic Games were held over multiple months and did not resemble a modern two week schedule until LA 1932.
OLYMPIC PROGRAM: EVER-CHANGING A much less strict Olympic program saw anywhere between 9 to 22 sports on the Olympic program including sports and competitions in Aeronautics, Basque Pelota, Croquet, Alpinism, Art Competitions, Jeu de Paume, Motorboating, Polo, Squash Rackets, Tug-of-War, . None of these sports would be featured on the Olympic program post World War II. However some sports featured like Figure Skating and Ice Hockey would be moved to the Winter Olympics starting in 1924 and in the last 50 years - sports such as Archery, Tennis, Rugby, Golf, Cricket, and Lacrosse have been added back to the Summer Olympics some nearly 100 years after they debuted on the Olympic program in a completely different form.
ERA II: 1948-1988: Cold War Games
London 1948, Helsinski 1952, Melbourne 1956,, Rome 1960, Tokyo 1964, Mexico City 1968,, Munich 1972, Montreal 1976,, Moscow 1980 (USA led boycott), LA 1984 (USSR led boycott), Seoul 1988
LENGTH: 40 years
OLYMPICS: 112 Olympics. No cancellation for WWIII but the Cold War and the fear of WWIII led to 2 Olympic Boycotts of Summer Olympics: 1980 Moscow (US and upwards of 65 invited nations boycotted the Olympic Games and chose not to participate) 1984 LA (USSR and upwards of 15 countries boycotted the Olympic Games and chose not to participate )
LOCATION: 1st Summer Olympics were held in Australia (Melbourne 1956), 1st Olympics held in Asia (Tokyo 1964) and 1st Summer Olympics held in North America outside the United States (Mexico City 1968, Montreal 1976).
MEDAL LEADER: Communist countries with state sponsored sports programs like USSR (debut: 1952), East Germany (debut:1956), People's Republic of China (full team debut: 1984) all made their debut during ERA II. USSR would dominate winning the gold medal count in 6 of the 10 Olympics they participated from 1948-1988. In the other four Olympics of Era II- Team USA would win the gold medal count. In addition to the USSR - East Germany (1968-1988) became pretty dominant in the medal table mainly due to a state sponsored doping program that would be uncovered after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
TV COVERAGE: TV Coverage began with the 1956 Melbourne Summer Olympics but by the 1960 Rome Summer Olympics - CBS paid about $400,000 to broadcast the 1960 Summer Olympics to American viewers for the first time. By the 1984 LA Summer Olympics ABC was paying $225 million for the rights to broadcast the Olympic Games. 1984 LA Summer Olympics would be the last Summer Olympics - NBC didn’t broadcast in the United States- Starting with the 1988 Seoul Olympics NBC has secured the broadcast rights in America for 12 straight Summer Olympics (1988- 2032).
ATHLETES: The end of amateurism at the Olympics started during ERA II. IOC president Avery Brundage (1952-1972) was very much against professionals in the Olympics but when he ended his Presidency this doctrine started to crumble. Cold War politics played a part…Western Bloc countries like the US felt Eastern Bloc countries like USSR and East Germany were funding their athletes through bogus “military training” and therefore using professionals at multiple events. Others in the Olympic movement felt that the NCAA (giving college scholarships to the best athletes) was another way around it. By 1978 to catch up to the USSR and East Germany - the US Congress passed the Amateur Sports Act that set up NGB (National Governing Bodies) for each sport and allowed a pathway for professional US athletes in Olympic sports. With the end of amateurism retiring at age 22 to take advantage of endorsement deals like Team USA star athletes Wilma Rudolph (1960 Rome, 3 golds) and Mark Spitz (Munich 1972, 7 golds) had done in the past was over. The next generation of athletes would win multiple gold medals in multiple Olympics like Jackie Joyner-Kersee and Carl Lewis who made their debut at the 1984 LA Summer Olympics and were still winning medals at the 1996 Atlanta Olympics.
QUALIFICATION: Qualification started but was more focused on the TEAM SPORTS. Imagine a 21 nation Water Polo Tournament, 23 nation Basketball Tournament, 25 nation Soccer Tournament . That all happened at the 1952 Helsinki Olympics. During Era II many of the team sports in the Olympics went from an odd number of nations (whoever wanted to show up) to competing to the standard 12 to 16 teams they currently use at the Olympics via Olympic qualification.
GENDER PARITY: JUST GETTING STARTED Starting with the 1976 Montreal Olympics over 20% of the athletes were women athletes. By the 1988 Seoul Olympics that number would be 25%. Two all female sport disciplines were added to the LA Olympics- Rhythmic Gymnastics and Artistic Swimming (1984) as well as Women’s Basketball (1976), Women’s Field Hockey (1980) and Women’s Marathon (1984) made their debut on the Olympic program to join their male counterparts.
TIMING: With the Summer Olympics headed to Australia, Japan, Mexico City, and Seoul for the first time, the Summer Olympics took place in October, November, and December. Since 1988 Seoul Summer Olympics -only one Summer Olympics did not start in July or August (Sydney 2000)
OLYMPIC PROGRAM: STABLE - The Olympics came back from a 12 year hiatus in London 1948 with 17 sports and 136 events. In the next 11 Olympics - over 100 events would be added but the sports stayed pretty much the same (25% of these new events came in swimming and athletics). Only six sports were added during this time period - three of the six had previously been held at the Olympics (archery, handball, tennis). 4 of the 6 new sports made their debut when the Olympics were held in Asia (1964 Tokyo- volleyball and judo, 1988 Seoul- table tennis and tennis).
(PRESENT DAY) ERA III: 1992-2028 RISE OF CHINA
Barcelona 1992, Atlanta 1996, Sydney 2000, Athens 2004, Beijing 2008, London 2012, Rio 2016, Tokyo 2020*, Paris 2024, LA 2028
LENGTH: 36 years3
OLYMPICS: 10 Olympics.
No cancellations but the 2020 Tokyo Olympics were postponed one year because of the COVID pandemic and held with no fans in the stands.
LOCATION: First Olympics Held in China (Beijing 2008) and first Olympics held in South America (Rio 2016). Most locations in this era were a return - 3 cities hosted the Summer Olympics for a 3rd time (London 2012, Paris 2024, LA 2028) and the game returned to Greece for the second time (1st time since 1896) and also returned to Australia (Sydney 2000) and Japan (Tokyo 2020)
MEDAL LEADER: China became Team USA's main rival at the top of the medal count. Since 1992 - China has always been in the Top 5 and since 2000- China has always been in Top 3. Besides China and USA topping the medal count-the host country started to see a real pick up in medals- United States (1996) China (2008) won the gold medal/medal count when they hosted the Olympics and Australia (2000), Great Britain (2012), and Japan (2020) all ended up in the Top 3 when they hosted. Russia continued to be in the Top 3 at most Olympics but the last Olympics the Russian team led the gold medal count was 1992 as the Unified Team and they never reached the same heights on the medal table they did as the USSR.
TV COVERAGE: Starting with the 1996 Summer Olympics - NBC would have the broadcast for the Winter and Summer Olympics through 2032 Brisbane. As a result of Michael Phelps going for 8 Olympic medals in Beijing- the swimming finals were moved to the morning in Beijing so that it would be primetime in America. By 2012 London Olympics - every single event would be streamed lived by NBC lived and after the Tokyo 2020 - The IOC called it the first streaming games with over 3 billion people tuning in the Olympics. The Olympics had gone from a taped delayed event in primetime on broadcast cable to the American audience to an event where you could watch any event live from your phone or computer.
ATHLETES: Professional athletes became the norm and were embraced. The 1992 Dream Team changed Olympic basketball as NBA legends Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Charles Barkley blew out teams by an average of 44 points. The blowouts were good for business as the NBA became a huge global success in the next 20 years. Sports like Tennis (rejoined 1988) and Golf (rejoined 2016) made their triumphant return back on the Olympic program with the biggest professional stars from their leagues. Two of America’s most decorated swimmers Michael Phelps and Katie Ledecky came of age from teenagers to GOATS in their sports while competing in four plus Olympics. WNBA stars Sue Bird and Diana Taurasi won 5 straight gold medals spanning two decades from 2000 to 2021 for the US Women’s Basketball team.
Olympic historian Bill Mallon pointed out that since the 1996 Atlanta Olympics nearly 35% of athletes4 have competed at 2 or more Olympic games, up from the average of only 20% of athletes in previous Olympics
Starting with Paris 2024 World Athletics President Sebastian Coe announced that 48 gold medal winners in athletics would get prize money breaking with the long standing tradition of not sharing revenues with the athletes5. This is one of the factors why Paris 2024 and LA28 (where Coe hopes to get off three medalists prize money) could be a transition to the next Era of the Olympic Games.
As professional athletes grew competing at the Olympics- the IOC had to get better at catching athletes using performance enhancing drugs. 1988 Seoul Olympics (end of Era II- transition to Era III) were infamously known for Canada Ben Johnson’s dismissal after the 100 meters due to anabolic steroids but Era III would see the foundation of WADA (1999) and two state sponsored drug scandal involving America’s rivals; Russia and China. Russia’s state-sponsored doping scandal led to 16 medals (5 gold medals) being stripped from the London Olympics. In 2024 evidence from a media report came out about a possible Chinese state sponsored program in which swimmers from USA and Great Britain believed WADA may have looked the other way with their reaction to the Chinese athletes. Team USA was also caught for using performance enhancing drugs during this time period when Marion Jones (5 medals at the 2000 Sydney Olympics including three gold medals) and Lance Armstrong (just a bronze medal at the 2000 Sydney Olympics but 7 Tour de France wins) forfeited their medals when they admitted to use performance enhancing drugs. It should be noted for Lance Armstrong- the 7 Tour de France titles he won were never reassigned to another cyclist because it is believe most of the top riders in the Tour de France were doping in this time period.
GENDER PARITY: ALMOST EQUAL IOC gave athlete quotas for Paris 2024 and gender equality was at 50%. In this period - six sports that had been on the Olympic program Judo (1992), Soccer (1996) Modern Pentathlon/Water Polo (2000), Wrestling (2004), Boxing (2012) added women's events for the first time. Mixed Gender Events started to ease their way back into the Olympic games - first with Mixed Doubles in Badminton in 1996 and now at Paris 2024 - 21 events will be mixed gender including artistic swimming will be allowing male swimmers for the first time ever. There will still be more male (157) events than female events (151) but equal events will likely come in ERA IV and in terms of an open mixed gender event like equestrian - the participation is still 60% male.
QUALIFICATION: Since 2004 Athens Summer Olympics over 2006 nations have competed at the Summer Olympics. IOC implemented a quota of under 11,000 athletes for the Sydney 2000 Olympics (currently: 10,500 athletes for Paris 2024) This led to all sports and individual events having qualification to get into the Olympics (usually in the form of World Championships placement, rankings, qualifying tournaments). By 2015 - every continent would have a continental games that included some type of Olympic Qualification as the European Games were launched in 2015 (Asian Games, PanAm Games, African Games, Pacific Games had been launched in the 1950s and 1960s but started to add direct Olympic qualification beyond team sports in Era III)
By Paris 2024 - IOC started the Olympic Qualifier Series in May and June (discussed above) with the final day of Olympic qualification coinciding with Olympic Day June 23.
TIMING: 16 Days of the Olympics are slowly expanding to 18 or 19 days with team sports like Rugby, Softball, and Soccer all having preliminary games and competition before the Opening Ceremony in Tokyo and Paris
1992 was the last year the Winter Olympics and Summer Olympics were staged the same year. Starting in 1994 the Winter Olympics and Summer Olympics would be staggered. The Olympics went from two major events quadrennially to two major events biannually.
Olympic Program: EXPANDING
LA 1984: 21 Sports and 29 Sport Disciplines
LA 2028: 36 Sports and 52 Sport Disciplines
Note this number for LA28 does not include sports like Karate (Tokyo 2020) and Breaking (Paris 2024) that could easily come back to the Olympics but were not chosen for LA28.
The IOC debuted the Youth Olympics in off Olympic years in 2010. Dakar 2026 will be the first Youth Olympic Games in Africa. Youth Olympics have given some countries an ability to succeed in the U18 format in sports they do not usually succeed at the Olympics like the United States winning medals in table tennis. The World Games (for about 30 IOC recognized non Olympic Sports) has expanded with over 3,000 athletes and over 30 sports and takes place the year after the Summer Olympics. IOC President Bach has attended the Youth Olympics and World Games looking at possible sports like beach handball or mixed team ultimate flying disc that might one day be in the Olympics. The World Games which debuted in 1981 would have fourteen sports7 make their Olympic debut during Era III.
Also the World Combat Games (2013) and the World Beach Games (2019) made their debut. The World Combat Games 2023 featuring 16 sports including Olympic sports boxing, fencing, judo, wrestling- but also one of the oldest Olympic sports Pankration Wrestling (Team USA won a Gold Medal in Pankration)
ERA IV: THE NEXT FRONTIER
Brisbane 2032 and Beyond
LENGTH and OLYMPICS both TBD but if form holds could be another 30 to 40 years and encompass 8 to 10 Olympics
LOCATION Brisbane 2032 will be the 3rd time the Olympics head to Australia, usually the Olympics going to Australia aligns with a new era (1956 Melbourne, 2000 Sydney). New Places could include India, Middle East (Qatar and Saudi Arabia) and Africa. The 2036 Olympics bidders have included India (first time Olympics would go to India) Qatar ,(coming off hosting World Cup in 2022), Saudi Arabia (LIV Golf investment and 2034 World Cup hosts) and Egypt (first time games would head to Africa). Germany, Spain, and China both seem interested in getting the Olympic back to their country and European nations Turkiye, Hungary, and Azerbaijan have made pushes to host the Olympics as they host major Worlds Championships in Aquatics, Athletics, and Gymnastics and European Games.
MEDAL LEADER: Too early to tell. As of now Team USA and China still look to battle at the top of the medal count but one of the unintended consequences of Olympic qualification and quotas is athletes with dual citizenships or the ability to become a dual citizen are switching nations for easier Olympic qualification or more funding. That actually hurts some of the previous Olympic powerhouses USA, China, and Russia in some of their best sports like Russia in wrestling, China in table tennis/badminton, or USA in athletics.
For example - the World record holder from Sweden Mondo Duplantis was born and raised in Lafayette, Louisiana (went to LSU and came up through US and College HS Track and field program) but chose to compete for his mother’s country Sweden. Duplantis is able to be a bigger star in Sweden and Europe competing in men’s pole vault than he likely would have been on the United States team who has such a talented and deep track and field team every year.
Also can large countries like India or Brazil find a way to regularly be in the Top 10 or countries dedicated to hosting World Championships in their countries (building great new facilities) like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Hungary, Turkiye, Azerbaijan find a way to move up the medal table as well.
TV COVERAGE: Streaming will likely take over for Broadcast/Cable TV. Will Amazon, AppleTV and Netflix make a bid for the Olympics? Salt Lake City 2034 (an American Olympics) is part of the next TV deal. IOC’s TV deal isn’t just about the US anymore - the addition of cricket at LA28 and likely for future games could help with the interest and rising interest and price of TV deals in India and South Asia.
ATHLETES: How many sports will follow World Athletics lead and pay their athletes? Tennis stars have been complaining for years they don’t get prize money for the Olympics so look for tennis and many other sports to follow suit.
QUALIFICATION: About 20 of the 48 sport disciplines have some type of direct Olympics qualification connected to the Continental Games - I think that number will increase, especially given some of the dozen or more sports that have a standalone continental qualification not using the Continental Games (for example wrestling or rowing/canoe sprint)
The Olympic Qualifier Series is a big step but currently only 5 of the 48 sport disciplines will participate for the Paris 2024 Olympics. TSX Examiner editor Rich Perelman mentioned Squash participating in 2028 but I think this could become a larger event. Out of the 36 sport disciplines that do not rely on rankings for Olympic qualification like golf, judo, badminton, etc ⅔ of these sport disciplines have a last chance OQT event. So why not hold them at the same location? I could easily see other Olympic sports consolidate to one location like last chance MX triathlon relay, last chance wrestling tournament, last chance rowing regatta, or the OQT in boxing and 3x3 Basketball. Making the Olympic Qualifier Series feel like an Olympic event could help with sponsors and TV rights.
GENDER PARITY: It will soon be 50-50 with events. You have a boom of mixed gender events at the World Championships or Continental Championships (diving, swimming, artistic swimming, cycling, taekwondo, rowing, canoe/kayak) that are trying to be added as new events and sports may decided to add mx gender team events over single sex team events like sailing did at the Paris Olympics.
The bigger question - What is the future for female sports like rhythmic gymnastics and artistic swimming or a male only sport like greco-roman wrestling? Artistic swimming realizes the future might be added as co-ed sport while gymnastics and wrestling may replace rhythmic and greco-roman with gender equal non Olympic sports like parkour, tumbling, and beach wrestling.
Achieving true gender parity will not be the end game; in the next 40 years - sports may add an open event as a large part of the population including athletes identify as non-binary or transgender. All six Equestrian events have been open to all genders since 1964 but even at the Tokyo Olympics over 60% of athletes were male athletes.
TIMING: Will the Olympics head to three weeks? With a 48 nation World Cup in 2026 - it will take a month for the World Cup to go from 48 teams to 4 teams that only took 3 weeks at the 2022 World Cup. The Olympics could follow FIFA’s lead and add a third weekend looking for more profit to streaming/tv partners.
Longer schedule likely would come with some logistical hurdles in terms of the number of athletes/athlete village part of the Olympic Games but having the surfing in Tahiti for Paris we will serve as a test case of two Olympic villages.
OLYMPIC PROGRAM: Boxing, Modern Pentathlon, and Weightlifting all were looked at sports that could leave the Olympic program at LA28 and in ERA III Wrestling was almost dropped from the Olympic program. Will one of these original sports from ERA I be removed? Speaking of ERA I the host country is now adding 3 to 5 sports that could be of interest in that regional area or to a younger generation of sports fan. Baseball/Softball have been added at most non European based Olympics. Karate was added in Tokyo, Breaking was added in Paris, Squash and Lacrosse Sixes will be added at LA and there is a chance netball or pickleball could be added in Brisbane. Next up could be beach soccer, teqball, futsal, dragon boat racing and e-sports which all have a spot in various region Continental Games or a World Games mixed gender team sports like korfball or ultimate flying disc. Using the Continental Games, World Games, and Youth Olympics - the IOC has a lot of ways to test an Olympic sport before they enter the Olympics like they did with breaking which was featured at the 2018 Youth Olympics and 2022 World Games.
If the Olympics keep on adding more sports without losing sports they will need to change the 10,500 athlete quota. This is more of a logitical Olympic village question (can a city host 11,000 athletes and their coaches?) but the answers could be creative having multiple cities/nations host the Olympics (seeing it with surfing and Tahiti in 2024) and that seems to be the model the Winter Olympics and FIFA World Cup are looking at in upcoming editions.
Also the Olympic movement went from a 4 year event to a 2 year event in Era III. Can the Olympics become an annual event. The IOC has recognize over 60 sports including Cheerleading, Bowling, and Chess and that number doesn’t include a sports like pickleball8 or boxing. There are about 40 to 50% of events that Olympic recognize sports hold at World Championships that they do not have at the Olympics. That includes events like the 50 m backstroke/butterfly, breaststroke in swimming but also new sport disciplines like parkour, inline skating, cycleball, SUP surfing, and compound archery -all managed by an international federation that has other sports in the Summer Olympics.
To expand the Olympic movement - These other events will need to have the Olympic feel whether through the location, broadcaster, facilities, or fans… time will only tell if that is possible.
It should be noted that their is a chance Seb Coe runs to be IOC President in 2025 when Thomas Bach’s second term is up in 2025 but many members have asked Bach stays until 2029. IOC President are currently limited to a one term eight-year term followed by a second term four year term (12 year term limit if reelected). The decision has put off until after Paris Olympics. Most eras are usually could defined by how the IOC Presidents dealt with the expansion of the Games.
Vision of the Modern Olympic Games/Olympic Sports/ Participation of Women -Pierre de Coubertin, Count de Baillet-Latour (Era 1),
Amateurism/ Boycotts- Avery Brundage/Juan Antonio Samaranch (Era 2)
Global Expansion- Olympics in the BRICS/WADA/Youth Olympics- Jacques Rogge/Thomas Bach (Era 3)
Seoul 1988 Olympics can also be seen as a transitional Olympics between ERA II and ERA III. Likely historians will say the same re Paris 2024 and LA28
I assume Paris 2024 and LA 28 will be part of Era III but they are likely transitional Olympics like Seoul 1988
This number does not include Team USA’s Paris 2024 qualifications which should increase the number
State governments and National Olympic Bodies had given out prize money for gold, silver, and bronze medals previously.
Most of the influx of new nations was due to the breakup of the USSR, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia where 24 new nations would emerge just from the breakup of those 3 countries. In addition the 1992 Barcelona Olympics saw a Unified Germany for the first time since WWII and South Africa’s return to the Olympics (after ending apartheid in 1992). The Barcelona Summer Olympics also saw the first Summer Olympics where athletes competed formally without a nation (Unified Team, Independent Olympic Athletes -athletes from Yugoslavia in the midst of war). By Paris 2024 - IOC will have the third Olympics with the Olympic Refugee Team and Individual Neutral Athletes ( athletes from Russia or Belarus who met certain requirements as non-combatants and non-supporters of the Russian War with Ukraine in 2022-2024) competing without nations
Badminton (1981, 1988), Women’s Water Polo (1981, 2000) Taekwondo (1981, 2000), Trampoline (1981, 2000), Karate (1981, 2020), Baseball/Softball (1981, 1992/1996) Beach Volleyball (1993, 1996), Triathlon (1993, 2000), Squash (1997, 2028), Women’s Weightlifting (1997, 2000), Rugby Sevens (2001, 2016), Sport Climbing (2005,2020) , Breaking (2022, 2024) Flag Football (2022, 2028, Lacrosse Sixes (2022, 2028),
Currently has three international federations but there is a chance they could get things in order by 2032 or 2036 for Olympic inclusion.