TEAM USA TRACKER: March 18, 2024
Could Olympic Trials be keeping some of Team USA's best medal contenders off the team?
THE OLYMPIC COUNTDOWN
130 Days Until PARIS 2024 Opening Ceremonies
58 US Athletes have officially qualified for PARIS 2024
At least 25 more athletes could be named to team by the end of the month (21 from USA Rowing Selection Camp happening now) plus some other athletes could mathematically qualify very soon for Paris via rankings in badminton and fencing.
Team USA has qualified for 204 events and Team USA Tracker prediction is that Team USA team with send over 600 athletes to Paris. It will mark the 3rd time in Summer Olympics history that Team USA will send a team of 600 athletes joining Atlanta 1996 and Tokyo 2020.
IN FOCUS: US OLYMPIC TRIALS
Could US Olympic Trials be keeping some of Team USA's best medal contenders off the team?
The ANSWER: YES
Erin Jackson won the first gold medal for Team USA in Speed Skating in 12 years at the Beijing Winter Olympics. It might have not been a surprise since Erin Jackson was the gold medal favorite coming into the event because Jackson won 50% races in the ISU Speed Skating World Cup at 500 meters the season before the Beijing Olympics. What was a SURPRISE is that USA Speedskating almost kept Jackson off the team because they determined the team by how Jackson skated in Olympic trial event only. When Jackson slipped and continued racing to finish 3rd in the women’s 500 meters that meant Jackson was not guaranteed a spot. Jackson’s teammate and long time friend Brittany Bowe basically said f**k or forget about the trial result… USA Speedskating.. this is a stupid rule and Jackson is the best skater in the world at this distance and gave up her spot to Jackson in a selfless act guaranteeing the gold medal favorite Jackson would participate at the Beijing Olympics. Most athletes trying to make the Olympics would not have done what Bowe had done but Bowe was in a unique position where the 500 meters were not Bowe’s best event and had made the team in other distances. THE REST AS THEY SAID IS HISTORY…Erin Jackson won GOLD and ending a decade long gold medal-less streak for USA Speedskating at the Winter Olympics.
Heading into Paris…despite what Erin Jackson might have taught Team USA - there are still over a dozen Olympic sport disciplines for Team USA that still picking their team for Paris 2024 only off US Olympic trials and not incorporating an athlete’s entire body of work over the last couple of years on the world stage to send Team USA’s best team to Paris.
Team USA’s two best sports in the Summer Olympics have always been Swimming and Track & Field which have accounted historically for over 51% of Team USA’s medals at the Summer Olympics according to OlyMadMen. At Paris 2024 early medal predictions* think that Swimming and Track & Field will once again accounting for over 40% of Team USA’s medals and nearly half of Team USA’s gold medals. Team USA hold both trials where the TRIAL RESULTS ARE THE ONLY THING that matter in determining Olympic roster. USA Swimming and USATF had been doing trials this way for over 100 years and given the more knowledge we have on how to maximize an athlete’s peak performance for an event and increased competition around the world this Olympic trial format is antiquated. There is something nostalgic about using a format that goes back to 1908 and 1920 when the Summer Olympics first restricted some events to only 4 athletes per nation starting but using an idea to be the standard for Team USA’s qualification that goes back well before some of Team USA’s biggest rival countries at the Olympics (USSR/Russia, People’s Republic of China) were even formed by their government yet alone competed at the Olympics does put Team USA at a competitive disadvantage.
1) NO PROTECTED SAFETY NET FOR EXPECTED GOLD MEDAL FAVORITES
Projected multiple event gold medal favorites like Noah Lyles and Katie Ledecky will need to qualify in multiple events like everyone else at the Trials to compete in Paris with no safety net if they have subpar race on the track that day or bad swim at the US Olympic trials. Team USA famously left home 1991 World Decathlon Gold Medalist Dan O’Brien when he had a no mark in pole vault at the US Olympic trials in 1992 despite being Reebok’s main advertisement (Dan vs Dave) for the Olympics. Team USA ended up not winning gold medal in Men’s Decathlon as Dave Johnson was top US finisher winning bronze and Dan O’Brien would have to wait until four years later to win gold in Atlanta.
*all predictions based off early medal predictions by TeamUSATracker and Gracenote.
2) PEAK TIMES BY ATHLETES AT TRIALS THEY FAIL DUPLICATE AT OLYMPICS due to TIMING OF TRIALS
This is the most concerning trend and can be easily monitored by USA Swimming and USA Track & Field. Heading into the Tokyo Olympics Regan Smith was the world record holder in the 200m backstroke but finished 3rd at 2021 Swimming Trials in 200m backstroke as she was competing to make the team in multiple events. US Trials winner Rhyan White swam a slower time at the Olympics than White had swam at trials to finish just off the podium in 4th and Team USA did not medal in the event. This was particularly transparent at the 2023 Swimming World Championships when Team USA held World Championships trials likely too close to the World Championships. John Anderson (ESPN’s anchor of Track & Field and the world feed commentator for Tokyo Olympics) discussed openly with his fellow commentators at the last Olympics if the United States down meet at the Tokyo Olympics related to how close the US Olympic trials were to Tokyo.
3) IT DOESN’T TAKE IN AN ATHLETE’S PERFORMANCE OVER MULTIPLE EVENTS
US sprinter Gabby Thomas said after Tokyo making the US Olympic team in sprints is harder than getting in Harvard. To be fair Harvard likely looked at Thomas’ entire body of work as a student not just how Thomas did on one test in high school.
The US track & field trials as the singular event to send a team to the Olympics when television was not invented yet but in today’s world when we can analyze various data and video from races around the world - USATF should have a sense of the top medal contenders in each event before the Olympic trials.
.4) HAVING OLYMPIC TRIALS IN SPORTS WHERE TEAM USA HAS LIMITED MEDAL CONTENDERS MAKES NO SENSE
Team USA is holding winner take all trials in these sports: Archery, Canoe/Kayak, Diving, Rowing, Sailing, Shooting, Taekwondo, Table Tennis, Trampoline, and Wrestling. For all of these sports besides shooting (trap and shotgun) and freestyle wrestling where an argument can be made the USA havs more medal contenders than OIympic spots - the rest of these sports -Team USA has a very limited amount of athletes who could win medals. In Olympic trials in Shooting, Sailing, Taekwondo earlier this year- Team USA left home possible medal contenders.
USA Shooting: 2022 World Gold Medalist Ali Weisz (first woman to win a World Championship rifle title in 43 years) finished third in women’s 10m air rifle trials
USA Taekwondo: Ana Zolotic (the first ever US woman to ever win a gold medal in Taekwondo at 18 in Tokyo) was defeated in a best of 3 matches vs Kristina Teachout. Zolotic was coming back from a hip injury and had to fight a best of 3 matches vs Teachout (Zolotic won the 1st match and narrowly lost 2nd match) . A month later in February; Zolotic would win the US Open in Taekwondo at 67KG weight class defeating an opponent who beat Teachout (who beat Zolotic at trials) in Round 2. Team USA will send Teachout to qualify at continental qualifiers and given Teachout’s performance at US Open, recent World Chamionships, and PanAm games- Teachout will be an underdog to qualify Team USA in the 67KG weight class in Paris.
USA Sailing: Charlotte Rose won the Silver Medal at the 2024 Women’s ILCA 6 World Championships in January (first world medalist for Team USA in this event in 8 years) and in February did not make the Olympic team because Rose was U-Flagged (an offsides call in sailing) in the penultimate race of US trials and finished 3rd overall in the trials. In two of six events that USA Sailing had Sailing Trials only - sailors who had outperformed their other US competitors at that last two World Championships with Top 5 finishes ended up not making the US Olympic team. Now the USA Sailing did waive trials for any US athlete who medal in a test event like Daniela Moroz in Women’s Kite but in the case of Charlotte Rose and Andrew Mollerus/Ian Macdiarmid (Men’s Skiff) they were not awarded the opportunity to compete at the test event in France as USA Sailing sent other sailors. USA Sailing has NOT won a gold medal at Summer Olympic since 2008 and has only one medal in the last 3 Olympics but their selection process for Paris 2024 to not count the World Championships performance more in these events was mind-boggling.
With brings Team USA to this week where they have trials in Women’s canoe sprint where Team USA only has one athlete who is a medal contender and that is Tokyo Gold Medalist and 2 time World Championship Gold Medalist Nevin Harrison . I’m not sure why Harrison needs to win C-200 Women’s at US trials to officially lock in her spot in Paris despite Harrison being the only American to win a World Championship medal in a Canoe Sprint Olympic event in the last 30 years (Greg Barton 1991).
At the Table Tennis USA Olympic trials -Amy Wang a Top 40 player (who will likely receive a bye at the Paris Olympics as a top #32 player) will need to qualify for the Paris Olympics by possibly playing athletes who signed up off the street. USA Table Tennis had direct qualification for the highest ranked athlete inside the Top 50 so that went to Lily Zhang but did not account for two players inside the Top 50.
5) TRIALS SHOULD COUNT but just as a DATA POINT
USA Swimming could be headed to their lowest gold medal count at an Olympics in 36 years (1988 Seoul) as generational talent being from around the world (Leon Marchand, Summer McIntosh) look to win medals in multiple events. Some of the best USA swimmers like Regan Smith are being penalized by a disturbing trend that US swimmers are putting up their best times or peaking at US trials and not at World Championships/Olympics. China and Great Britain no longer makes the trials a sole event for Paris qualification and only use it as a major part of criteria unlike swimming powerhouses United States and Australia. Both countries have found recent success- Great Britain is coming off its most successful Olympics in history in swimming history by winning eight medals (four golds) in Tokyo and China is predicted to have their most successful Olympics in swimming in Paris surpassing ten medals (five golds) from London 2012 based on their recent 2023 and 2024 World Championships performances
USA Gymnastics does this with US Gymnastics trials. They offer one golden ticket to the winner of the USA Gymnastics trials but the other 4 spots are subject to a panel, scores at multiple events, and how that athlete will help Team USA win a medal in the team event. Sometimes possible gold medal contenders in apparatuses like Stephen Nedoroscik (Men’s Pommel Horse) or Curran Phillips (Men’s Parallel Bars) will have a chance of being left at home for the Olympics but that is more of a reflection on the lack of overall Olympic quota spots in Artistic Gymnastics not on USA Gymnastics’ selection process.
I think USATF, USA Swimming, and US Olympic sport holding trials should likely look at a model where they do have a discretionary pick in each event to make sure Team USA does not leave medal contenders home for the Summer Olympics.
Feel free to leave a comment if you think US Olympic trials - winner(s) takes all spots Olympic trials event is actually hurting Team USA at the Olympics in terms of overall medal contenders and medal winners?
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WHAT TO WATCH IN TEAM USA’S PARIS QUALIFICATION NEXT MONTH
Trials:
US Rowing Selection Camp (March 3 to March 24)
After camp US Rowing will name 21 Olympians in Women’s Double Sculls and LW Double Sculls & Men’s and Women’s Four, Men’s and Women’s Eight. Men’s Eight team will still need to qualify for the Olympics
Note: Team USA won medals in Women’s Double Sculls, LW Double Sculls, Men’s Four, and Women’s Eight at 2023 Worlds
USA Shooting Trials: Smallbore Rifle and Pistol Olympic Selections (March 17 to 19,)
Table Tennis Trials (March 21 to Mar 24) -West Monroe, LA
Canoe Sprint (March 22 to March 23) Olympic Trials - Folsom, CA, USA
Sailing: 2024 Princess Sofia Regatta (April 1 -6) will count as final qualifying event for Women’s 49er: FX
US Rowing Trials (April 2-April 7)
Women’s Single Sculls, Men’s and Women’s Pair winners will head to Olympics
Men's single sculls, Men’s double sculls, men’s LW Double Sculls, and Men’s and Women's Quad sculls crews will head to final Regatta to qualify for Paris
Archery (April 2- April 3) Trials Phase 2
This will be Part 2 of the US Trials in which 16 archers will become 8 archers in Men and Women’s Recurve based on head to head results.
Olympic Qualifiers:
Trampoline: FIG World Cup 2024 Cottobus (March 22 to March 25) - last qualification World Cup for Paris Olympics. Only chance for Team USA to qualify in Men’s Trampoline
Shooting: 2024 Shooting Championships of the Americas (Rifle & pistol)- (March 31 to April 7) ISSF Final Olympic Qualification Championship (April 11 to April 19)
Archery: Continental Championships (April 9-April 10)
Taekwondo: Pan Am Continental Qualifiers (April 9-April 10)
Table Tennis: ITTF World Olympic Mixed Doubles Qualification Tournament (April 11-12)
Track & Field: Race Walking World Championships (April 21)
Major Events for Olympics/World Rankings:
Badminton: Swiss Open (Mar 19 - Mar 24) Madrid Spain Masters (Mar 26 to Mar 31) Thomas & Uber Cup (Apr 28- May 5) -only US Women qualified for this Team Event
Beach Volleyball: Tepic Elite 16 ( Apr 17 -Apr 21) Challengers: Recife, Brazil (Mar 21 to Mar 24) Saquarema, Brazil (Mar 28 to Mar 31), Guadalajara, MEX (Apr 10 to 14)
Cycling (Mountain Biking): Mairpora, Brazil (Apr 12 to Apr 14,) Araxa, Brazil (Apr 19 to Apr 21)
Cycling (BMX Racing) World Cup (2 races) Tulsa, OK (Apr 27 to Apr 28)
Cycling (Track): UCI Pan American Championships - Los Angeles, USA, (Apr 3- Apr 7)
Fencing: Men’s Sabre: Coupe de Monde Budapest (Mar 22-Mar 24) Epee: Men’s Coupe de Monde Tbilisi, Georgia (Mar 22-Mar 24) Women’s Coupe de Monde Nanjing (Mar 22- Mar 24)
Golf: PGA: Masters (Apr 11- Apr 14) RBC Heritage (Apr 18-Apr 21).
LPGA: T-Mobile Match Play (Apr 3- Apr 7) Chevron Championships (Apr 18 - Apr 21)
Judo: Tbilisi Grand Slam Cup (Mar 22- Mar 24), Antalya Grand Slam Cup (Mar 29-31)
Tennis -WTA/ATP 1000- Miami Open (March 19-31)
Track and Field: World Cross Country Championships (March 30), Xiamen Diamond League (April 20)