Team USA Tracker: January 25, 2024
Mikaela Shiffrin's Chase for 100, Who's In and Who's Out for Paris 2024
THE COUNTDOWN
743 Days until Milano Cortina 2026 Opening Ceremonies
183 Days until Paris 2024 Opening Ceremonies
8 Days until World Aquatics Championships 2024
📺World Aquatics Championships will be on NBC Sports/Peacock-
All sessions of Swimming (Pool and Open Water), Diving and Artistic Swimming Finals, Water Polo (All USA Matches plus SFs & medal matches).
Team USA will have Paris 2024 qualification at stake in open water swimming, diving, and artistic swimming (team). Team USA is fully qualified both teams in water polo and qualified by time & performance in the pool events in swimming.
🔎IN DEPTH: SHIFFRIN’S CHASE FOR 100
This weekend, Mikaela Shiffrin will ski at Cortina d'Ampezzo the site of the 2026 Olympics. Shiffrin has recent success on the race course winning 4 medals in 4 events at the 2021 World Championships including a bronze medal in the Super G which Shiffrin will race this weekend.
The Alpine Skiing Season is officially halfway over (22 races down, 21 races to go) and Shiffrin’s 7 wins in 2023-2024 continues to increase her record World Cup wins to 95. If Shiffrin stays healthy, Mikaela Shiffrin is on track to complete a milestone that no alpine skier has ever done 100 career wins. Since Peggy Shinn brought up the question for Ski Magazine in early January- Can Shiffrin Get to 100 wins this year? -Shiffrin has won 2 SL races at Flachau and Jasna; both stops where Shiffrin has had historic success.
So can Mikaela Shiffrin get to 100 World Cup wins this season?
Assuming Shiffrin skis about half of the remaining speed (DH, SG) events Shiffrin will need to win 5 races (about 35.7% of the remaining World Cup races she enters this season) to reach 100 career World Cup wins.
ADVANTAGE FOR SHIFFRIN: Shiffrin’s career World Cup winning percentage is 35.7% so based on Shiffrin’s historic win percentage -Shiffrin should be able to get to 100 before the end of the year.
DISADVANTAGE FOR SHIFFRIN: Speed races like this weekend dominate the calendar. 14 of the remaining 21 races left on the Women’s FIS Alpine World Cup calendar this year are speed events (DH,SG) and Shiffrin has a much lower career World Cup winning percentage ( 18%) in speed events.
ADVANTAGE FOR SHIFFRIN: 8 of the remaining 21 races will be at locations (Cortina d' Ampezzo, Kronplatz, Soldeu, and Åre) that Shiffrin has raced at multiple times in the her career and the knows the course well.
Åre has been a place for Shiffrin’s career milestones (1st World Cup win, tying and brekaing Stenmark’s record of 86 World Cup wins, and only World Championships where Shiffrin won two individual golds). It is entirely possible Shiffrin wins 3 of these 8 races (on par with Shiffrin’s historic World cup win percentage) and Shiffrin could be at 98 wins by end of the year
WILDCARD FOR SHIFFRIN (NEW LOCATIONS): 13 of the remaining 21 races left are at locations where Shiffrin has either never raced or never won. Shiffrin likely will skip a couple of these World Cup locations that are holding speed events in February especially where she has not raced in previous World Cup years such as Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.
Looking ahead the race locations besides Cortina this weekend that could determine if Shiffrin gets to 100 before the end of the ski year will likely happen in March- Kvitfjell, Norway and Saalbacch, Austria (host of the World Cup finals).
Shiffrin skied Kvitfjell, Norway (home hill of boyfriend Alexander Aamodt Kilde) in Kvitfjell return to Women’s tour last year but did not win or podium so will need some improvement. The World Cup finals in Saalbach, Austria will be a new location for all the skiers and Shiffrin will also be competing in tech races (SL and GS) in Saalbach and smaller fields which could both be advantages.
BOTTOM LINE: This March Shiffrin will likely be going for 100 World cup wins this March (Kvitfjell, Åre, Saalbach) and if Shiffrin does not get to 100 by the end of the 2023-2024 Alpine Skiing season- Shiffrin will be a heavy favorite to get to 100 World Cup in November 2024 at some courses that Shiffrin has historically dominated - Levi, Finland (where Shiffrin could add an 8th reindeer to her collection) or Killington, Vermont.
The record that Shiffrin likely will break soon is the all time World Cup podiums in Alpine Skiing of 155 set by Ingemar Stenmark. Shiffrin is now at 150 career podiums after 12 podiums this season and Shiffrin finishes Top 3 in over half of her World Cup starts so that record should be attainable if Shiffrin stays healthy.
PARIS 2024 OLYMPIC QUALIFICATION UPDATE: WHO’S IN AND WHO’S OUT
IN: USA FIELD HOCKEY
USA Women’s Field Hockey Team qualified for the Olympics for the first time since Rio 2016. USA Eagles ran through the Olympic Qualification Tournament with 4 straight wins including 3 teams ranked higher than USA in the world rankings - India, Japan, and New Zealand. Since the Rio Olympics - USA Women’s Field Hockey did not qualify for Tokyo Olympics or the FIH World Cup 2022 so this is a big and unexpected (according to rankings) achievement for USA Field Hockey. Team USA will head to Paris as the 3rd lowest ranked team in the 12 team field but will have some FIH Pro League games vs medal favorites Netherlands, Australia, Belgium, and Germany before the Paris Olympics in July to improve their world rank and assess what players will head to Paris to represent Team USA.
IN: USA SAILING MEDAL CONTENDERS BOOK TICKETS FOR PARIS
The first batch of USA Sailing Trials concluded in January. Ians Barrows/Hans Henken (Men’s Skiff 49er) and Dominique Stater (Women’s Windsurfing) qualified to represent Team USA in Paris joining Daniela Moroz (Women’s Kite: Formula Kite). USA Sailing will look to build off Moroz’s Top 3 and Barrows/Henken Top 6 finish at the Paris Test Event and hopefully contend for medals in both these events at the Olympics.
Noah Lyons (Men’s Windsurfing), Stu McNay/Lara Dallman-Weiss (MX Dinghy 470), and Markus Edegran (Men’s Kite: Formula Kite) won US trials and all qualified to be Team USA’s representative in Paris 2024 with the catch THEY NEED TO QUALIFY Team USA for the the Paris Olympics. Lyons and Edegran will head to the Last Chance Regatta in April for a final shot at qualification while McNay/Dallman-Weiss could qualify via the MX Dinghy 470 Worlds in late February or the Last Chance Regatta in April.
USA Sailing Trials conclude in February (Feb 17-24) with the One Person Dinghy Classes- ILCA 6 (Women) and ILCA 7(Men) in Miami. The ILCA6 class will see a battle between Charlotte Rose ( Silver Medalist at ILCA 6 Worlds in January) vs Erika Reineke (Gold Medalist at Pan Am Games last November) as one sailor will head to Paris. US men have eight boats competing at the ILCA7 Worlds happening now in Adelaide, Australia in which they can qualify an Olympic spot with a Top 7 finish (excluding 18 nations already qualified via 2023 Worlds). Based on 2023 Worlds- A Top 30 finish (since some qualified nations have multiple top 30 sailors) could end up qualifying Team USA for the Paris Olympics but that would be significant improvement for USA Sailing. USA Sailing has not put a sailor in the Top 75 at the last two ILCA7 World Championships and will be lead by three former recent College Sailing champs Chapman Petersen, Leo Boucher, and Ford McCann who will try to to lock down an Olympic spot for Team USA in Adelaide.
IN: USA SHOOTING AIR RIFLE & AIR PISTOL TEAM
USA Shooting finished their trials in Air Rifle and Air Pistol in January - 5 athletes clinched their spot to Paris 2024 including 3 returning Olympians from Tokyo Mary Tucker (silver medalist in MX Team Air Rifle), Sagen Maddalena, and Lexi Lagan.
3 other US athletes qualified pending Team USA getting the country quota(s) in their discipline including Nick Mowrer who would be going to his 3rd Olympic games if Team USA qualifies a spot in Men’s 10m Air Pistol. Note Lucas Kozeniesky who shared the silver medal with Tucker at Tokyo finished 3rd in Air Rifle so will not return to the Olympics in that event. There will be two events in April that Team USA can qualify the remaining 3 Olympic spots in Air Rifle and Air Pistol.
OUT: TOKYO GOLD MEDALIST ANA ZOLOTIC
Anastasija Zolotic who won Gold Medal at Tokyo and became the first American woman ever to win a gold medal at the Olympics in Taekwondo will not head to Paris. Zolotic coming back from injury (hip surgery) that sidelined her for over a year and going up in a weight class (67KG) lost a best of 3 match to 18 year old Kristina Teachout. Teachout will now head to the Pan Am qualifiers to try to qualify Team USA in the 67KG weight class with 2 other USA Taekwondo athletes Faith Dillon and PanAm Games silver medalist Jonathan Healy. Faith Dillon (Silver Medalist at the Grand Prix final) defeated 2022 World Gold Medalist Makayla Greenwood in a best of three match at 57KG (the weight class Zolotic won gold in Tokyo).
If Teachout, Dillon, and Healy finish in the Top 2 -Team USA can still only qualify in 4 of 8 Taekwondo events in Paris. 2023 Worlds Silver Medalist CJ Nickolas qualified directly off his Top 5 rankings and has locked up his berth to Paris 2024. Taekwondo only allows a nation to qualify a a maximum of 4 sports- 2 per gender if they qualify through continental qualification. Because of these restrictions -Pan American gold medalists Khalfani Harris (Men’s Featherweight 68KG) and Madelyn Gorman-Shore (Women’s Heavyweight 73KG+) will not get to compete at the Pan American Olympic Qualifier or the Paris Olympics.
OUT: EMMA BATES
Emma Bates seen as a top contender to finish Top 3 at the USA Marathon Trials in February in Orlando announced on social media that she would not compete.
USA Marathon Trials are February 3, 2024 at 10 AM ET on Peacock. The top 3 women and men will book their tickets to Paris pending a time under the Olympic standard. Note only 2 US Men have that time under 2:08:10 heading into the Trials.
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FAQS: PRELIM BASKETBALL ROSTERS
This week - USA Men’s Basketball put a 41 player pool for Paris 2024 and USA Women’s Basketball named a training camp roster of 18 players that will play in the Olympic Qualifying Tournament in February (yes it is confusing because the USA Women are already qualified)
Some FAQs to clear up after the rosters were put out
FAQ: Where is Caitlin Clark?
Because the Olympic Qualification Tournament is during the NCAA season - no NCAA player could be named. So yes there is a chance Caitlin Clark could be named to the team for Paris 2024 team. Since the WNBA was founded in 1997- Team USA has only selected 4 players coming off their final college season for the team - Breanna Stewart (2016), Candace Parker, Sylvia Fowles (2008), and Diana Taurasi (2004).
FAQ: Where is Draymond Green?
With Green’s NBA head coach Steve Kerr coaching Team USA during the Paris Olympics a big headline was that 2-Olympic Gold Medalist Green was omitted from the preliminary player pool. Grant Hill told reporters on a Zoom call that Green’s recent suspension from NBA played a part in the decision to keep off the preliminary player pool.
FAQ: Could someone make the team who was not on the initial player pool?
YES
As Nick Zaccardi pointed out on X - the last two USMBT Olympic rosters have sent a player not included on the initial player pool to the Olympics
Snubs from the initial pool who could end up the roster besides Green includes 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey (in the midst of a career, likely All-NBA season), Thunder forward Jalen Williams or Kings forward Keegan Murray (both having solid sophomore NBA seasons and likely will USA Select team members if they don’t make the roster), and Knicks foward Julius Randle (All NBA 3rd Team in 2023 and along with Maxey only American players in the Top 20 in scoring left off the prelim roster)
FAQ: Will the USA 3x3 Teams be named primarily from these roster pools?
MAYBE but likely NO
FIBA has put in new rules in 3x3 that 2 of the 4 players who represent a nation in 3x3 Basketball must be in the Top 10 for that country in 3x3 rankings and 2 of 4 players must have played a FIBA sanctioned 3x3 event in the last year. Because of these changes from Tokyo (The US 3x3 Women’s Team that won gold could not compete under these rules) - means only 2 players from these pools could play 3x3 if they didn’t make the 12 person roster for basketball. USA 3x3 teams will likely be lead by former BYU star and NBA lottery pick Jimmer Fredette who is the top ranked American man and likely headed to Paris and on the women’s side keep an eye out for LSU guard Hailey Van Lith and Stanford star forward Cameron Brink who are both eligible for Team USA given these new rules.