Bracket Math: New Rules

Men's Bracketology: February 18, 2025

I put my bracket prediction on the top, but read further - I used some historical rules from the In-Season Selection Reveal, NET, and KenPom predictions to predict the bracket as of today.
Currently, there is just one bid thief¹ in my bracket (George Mason) but historically, that number is about 2 to 3 teams so if leagues like mid-majors MWC, WCC, American, Big West, MVC provide bid-stealers you could see the power conferences like SEC (12 projected bids to maybe 10 bids) and ACC (4 projected bids to 3 bids for first time since 2000) being hit the hardest by bid-stealers.

GETTING TO 68 TEAMS:

RULE 1: Since the Selection Committee started the in-season reveal in 2017, every team that has heard their name called has made the NCAA Tournament.

In: 16 TEAMS (11 at-large, 5 likely automatic)

Doing the math by conference:

SEC (6): Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky

Big 12 (5): Houston, Iowa State, Arizona, Texas Tech, Kansas

Big Ten (3): Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan

ACC (1): Duke

Big East (1): St. John’s

WHAT’S LEFT:

52 berths (26 at-large, 26 automatic)
Assumption: 5 auto bids will come from the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, ACC, and Big East.

RULE 2: 20 Automatic Bids will go to one bid league based on historic math.

10 leagues who have never sent two teams to the tournament: America East, Big South, Big Sky, Ivy, MEAC, NEC, Patriot, SoCon, Southland, and SWAC

5 leagues have only received at-large berths to the tournament very infrequently and mostly before the NET Era and usually the result of a bid-thief in conference tournament: ASUN, MAAC, MAC, OVC, Summit

5 leagues who used to be multiple bid leagues but, due to conference realignment, have lost their top programs and now have become a one-bid league: CAA, C-USA, Horizon, Sun Belt, WAC

In: 20 Teams (all automatic berths)

WHAT’S LEFT: 32 berths (26 at-large, 6 automatic)
The assumption is that five auto bids will come from the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, ACC, and Big East.

RULE 3: A Top 30 NET ranking will get a team in the NCAA Tournament
Since 2019, only one team with a NET in the Top 30 has been left out (Indiana State last season, and that was because of 5 bid thieves)

Math by Conference (Overall Bids)

SEC (9): Ole Miss, Miss State, Missouri
Big Ten (8): Michigan State, UCLA, Maryland, Illinois, Ohio State
Big 12 (6): Baylor
ACC (3): Louisville, Clemson
Big East (2): Marquette
WCC (2): Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga

In: 14 Teams (13 at-large, 1 likely automatic)

WHAT’S LEFT: 18 berths (13 at-large, 5 automatic)
Assumption: 6 auto bids will come from the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, ACC, Big East, AND NOW THE WCC (The only Mid-Major right now this year deserving of two bids by the metrics).

NEW RULE BASED ON RULE 3: First season, the NCAA is using the WAB, and the experts who designed think this should be used to help teams put teams in the NCAA Tournament. So, using the WAB, let’s use the Top 30 as a cut-off for an NCAA lock.

3 teams are in the Top 30 in WAB but not in Top 30 for NET.
Oregon from the Big Ten and the top two teams from the American (Memphis) and MWC (New Mexico).

Big Ten (9): Oregon
American (1): Memphis
MWC (1): New Mexico

In: 3 teams (1 at-large, 2 likely automatic)

WHAT’S LEFT: 15 berths (12 at-large, 3 automatic)
Assumption: 8 auto bids will come from SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, ACC, Big East, plus The AmericanAND MWC.

For now, American and MWC could become the first two bid-thieves opportunity.

3 automatic bids are left A-10, MVC, and Big West. These leagues are complicated since VCU (A-10, NET:34), Drake (MVC, WAB:44), and UC San Diego (Big West, NET: 43) are in bubble territory, especially historically for a mid-major. Drake and UCSD can be in the field right now based on winning the conference tournament. VCU is currently in a #2 seed in the A-10, so George Mason has to take their spot in the field. VCU hosts George Mason on Saturday.

In: 3 teams (3 automatic)

WHAT’S LEFT: 12 berths (12 at-large)
Assumption: 11 auto bids will come from SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, ACC, Big East, plus the AMERICAN AND MWC, plus A-10, MVC, and Big West.

RULE 4: The NCAA has discussed WAB is triggered on historically the Bubble being around #45. So let’s break down each metric NET and WAB and adds teams currently ten spots above the bubble ranked 31-35

Only 2 teams in the Top 35 of NET have been left out since 2022 and it happened last season when Indiana State and St. Johns were both left out because of bid thieves.

Adding teams NET (31-35) and WAB (31-35)

Top 35 of NET
SEC (10): Texas
Big East (4): Creighton, UConn
A-10(1): VCU

Top 35 of WAB

Big Ten (10): Nebraska
MWC (2): Utah State
ACC (4): Wake Forest

IN: 7 teams (7 at-large)

WHAT’S LEFT: 5 berths (5 at-large)
Assumption: 10 auto bids will come from SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, ACC, Big East, plus the AMERICAN AND MWC, plus MVC, and Big West.

Bid Thief #1: A-10 George Mason and VCU gets in as a bubble team

Note the 7 teams we just added are not solid ground given the 10 auto bids being assumed that a deserving team like #1 Auburn will win the SEC. All of these teams above should be considered bubble teams but they get in ahead of these bubble teams

So let’s make the Bubble - Teams in NET (36-45), WAB (36-45), or 5+ Q1 wins or 10+Q1/Q2 wins.
BUBBLE: 11 teams for 5 at-large spots
SEC (4): Georgia, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Oklahoma
Big 12 (3): BYU, West Virginia, Cincinnati
ACC (1): SMU
MWC (1): San Diego State
MVC (Auto): Drake
Big West (Auto): UC San Diego

Let’s have the teams in first place, Drake and UCSD, win their conference. Down to 9 Teams

RULE 5 : Historically, teams with 5+Q1 wins or 9 or 10+ Q1/Q2 wins in NET era get in the NCAA Tournament and team with zero Quad 1 wins will not be considered
Out of these bubble teams, that is West Virginia
We also eliminate SMU because they have 0 Quad 1 wins…Down to 8 teams

Big 12 (7): West Virginia
It should be noted Providence 2024 did not make the field despite having 5+ Q1 wins due to an injury to a key player. West Virginia will could have the same problem this year but a weaker bubble especially mid-major teams does help the Mountaineers.

IN: 1 team (West Virginia)

WHAT’S LEFT: 7 teams for 4 berths (4 at-large)

BUBBLE TEAMS: 7 teams for teams for 4 at-large spots….

Lets use some KenPom predict to shift through the other leagues

Mountain West
IN: 1 team (San Diego State)
San Diego State: IN

San Diego State has 4 Q1 wins. Aztecs take one of the bubble spots and likely deserve not to play First Four over VCU or Wake Forest (the teams with a WAB or NET inside Top 35) .

The Mountain West tournament could be ripe with bid thieves (see extended bubble² below), because #1 New Mexico and #2 Utah State have lost MWC games to San Jose State and UNLV - teams they might end up facing in QFs and if bid thieves happen in MWC - San Diego State could be shipped off to Dayton.

What’s Left: 6 teams for 3 at-large berths

Big 12:
IN: 1 team (BYU)

What’s left: 4 SEC teams for 2 at-large berths

BYU: In

Even though they have low resume metrics - the quality metrics (NET, KenPom, Torvik) are too hard to ignore and average out to 30. BYU hosts Kansas on Tuesday night and if they can follow in-state rival lead Utah and win that game they should be heading towards a 12-8 finish in Big 12 which should make them a lock.
Out of all the First Four teams headed to Dayton - BYU could be the strongest.

Cincinnati: OUT

1-9 in Quad 1 games and 7-1 in Quad 2 games will keep you in a convo but unless they pick up some Quad 1 wins they are out

From the Extended Bubble

Kansas State: OUT

Lost at BYU and Utah plus KenPom currently predicts K-State to lose their two remaining 2 conference road games (at UCF, at Cincy) and lose to Iowa State at home. which would result in 15-16 finish and they would not get a NCAA Tournament bid unless they likely win Big 12 Tournament. With most extended bubble teams K-State likely will need to go 5-0 including beating Iowa State, Arizona, and Colorado at home plus the road wins then like BYU they would be 12-8 in the Big 12 Conference and be much more in conversation.

UCF: OUT

UCF needs to go 6-0 and likely the same for any other fringe bubble teams Utah, TCU, and Arizona State in Big 12

What’s Left: 4 SEC teams for 2 at-large berths

SEC: IN: 2 teams
Arkansas: IN

HC John Calipari was upset over Arkansas blowing a chance to win at Texas A&M Saturday. But after Arkansas plays at #1 Auburn on Wednesday, Arkansas could have the one of the easiest path of any SEC bubble teams to 9-9 record in conference playing 2 fellow SEC bubble teams (Texas, at Vanderbilt), at winless South Carolina, and hosting Mississippi State a game that KenPom has the Razorbacks favored. Likely Arkansas would need to win their first round SEC game vs another SEC bubble team possibly against #14 Oklahoma to secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament Field.

Vanderbilt: IN but barely

Kenpom has them at 7-11 but possibly going 6-12 since in each individual game- KenPom only has Vanderbilt winning only one more game vs Arkansas. If Vanderbilt can not get two wins - they will likely at least two wins the SEC tournament (probably over SEC bubble team Georgia and then possibly Missouri or Tennessee). The good news is that Vanderbilt has played Tennessee well this season but they could look at blowing a 16 point lead vs Tennessee on Saturday as a game that keeps out of the NCAA Tournament. Currently that 12th team from the SEC (record from one conference) will be a position to only get a 12th bid if there are no bid thieves from mid-major conferences.

Oklahoma: OUT

Oklahoma’s loss at home vs LSU has Kenpom now predicting the Sooners will go 5-13 in the SEC and end up 14th in the league and that 5-13 record includes Oklahoma beating two of three ranked teams at home: Kentucky, Missouri, and Mississippi State at home.
Given non-conference wins over Michigan, Arizona, and Louisville- I think Oklahoma at 6-12 in the SEC would make the tournament but based on current predictions a 4-14 SEC record losing 9 out of 10 last regular season games leaves them out of the NCAA Tournament.

Georgia: OUT

Has lost of 8 of last 10 games and will now go at Auburn and host Florida at home (2/25) before traveling at Texas….Kenpom predicts Georgia will go 6-12 in SEC play and if they lose the next three games - losing six straight and 11 of last 13 games will be too much to overcome

The rest of power conferences (ACC/Big Ten/Big 12)

ACC: Going off these historical metrics, Wake Forest gets into the field, and SMU is #4 team Out due to ZERO QUAD 1 wins.

KenPom thinks the four ACC teams on the bubble or extended bubble (Wake Forest, SMU, North Carolina, Pittsburgh) will finish strong in league play and enter the ACC Tournament as #4 to #7 in the ACC tournament with the following record in league play
Wake Forest (15-5)
SMU (15-5)
North Carolina (13-7)
Pittsburgh (11-9)

It should make the Wake Forest vs SMU QF in the ACC Tournament a de-facto elimination game if there under two bid thieves. Assuming Wake wins that game like they did beating SMU on the road on Saturday…they should be in a more comfortable spot but likely headed to Dayton. North Carolina, SMU, or Pitt given their lack of Q1 wins (either one or none in the case of SMU) they likely need to make the ACC final and/or beat one of the top three ACC teams they play (Duke, Clemson, Louisville) down the stretch to warrant an at-large bid

Big East: Xavier and Villanova are on the extended bubble.
Xavier is 7-10 in Q1/Q2 games with wins over UConn, Wake Forest, Villanova at home and a road win at Marquette (only Q1 win). They have only one game left with a team in the NCAA Tournament (Creighton) which will be a must win but if they beat the teams they are expected by a good margin in the upcoming weeks they will improve their quality metrics into historical bubble territory.
Villanova is 6-8 in Q1/Q2 games with wins over St. John’s, UConn, Cincinnati, and Xavier at home. Home losses to Georgetown (Q3) and Columbia (Q4) likely doom their resume plus close losses to Georgetown, Creighton and Maryland, where they led with under a minute left. The good news for Villanova is 3 Q1/Q2 opportunities down the stretch beginning tonight at UConn can get them back in the bubble convo very easily.

Big Ten: As the Big Ten looks to have 10 NCAA Tournament teams comfortably… Teams outside the Top 10 are racking up Q1 and Q2 wins. 6 teams have 5+ Quad 1/Quad 2 wins but right now only Indiana and USC are expected for sure to make the Big Ten Tournament per KenPom as one or teams between Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, and Rutgers might not make the Big Ten Tournament.

Iowa: 6-10 Q1/Q2 games (0 Quad 1 wins)
Minnesota: 6-10 Q1/Q2 games (3 Quad 1 wins)
Washington: 6-11 Q1/Q2 games (1 Quad 1 wins)
USC: 5-9 Q1/Q2 games (3 Quad 1 wins)
Indiana: 5-11 Q1/Q2 games (2 Quad 1A wins)
Rutgers: 5-12 Q1/Q2 games (4 Quad 1 wins)

1. 11 automatic bids were in play for bid-stealing according to the math

4 GREAT bid-stealing opportunities: Where a team not in the NCAA Tournament would need only 1 win to knock out NCAA Tournament or bubble team (A-10, American, Big West, Missouri Valley).

Assumption: 7 auto bids will come from SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, ACC, Big East, MWC and WCC already in the field

2 GOOD bid-stealing opportunities: Where a team not in the NCAA Tournament would need only 2 wins to get an Automatic spot- teams in SFs (MWC, WCC)

The 6 best bid-stealing opportunities come from the mid-major, and since 2000, nearly 80% of the bid thieves have come from mid-major conferences.

3 AVERAGE bid-stealing opportunities- Where a team not in NCAA Tournament would need 3 wins to get an automatic spot- teams in QFs (Big East, Big 12, ACC)…Now the ACC and Big East may be ABOVE Average since they only have ACC (3) and Big East (2) in the Top 30 of NET as of Tuesday

2 SLIM bid-stealing opportunites- SEC and Big Ten will only have a bid thief coming from a #11 seed or lower in the their tournament winning 5 straight games. That has been done once (NC State 2024) and only (UConn 2014 and NC State 2024) have won 5 straight games in 5 straight days to win a conference tournament. So do you think #11 seed in the Big Ten or #11 seed in SEC could make the Final Four because they likely need to have that type of team

2. I created an Extended Bubble based on these metrics : (Teams with NET 46-75, 5+Quad 1 wins, 10+ Q1/Q2 wins)
Extended bubble: 18 teams could be in this bucket but after dropping teams with 0 Quad 1 wins or losing record - you can see about 6 teams standing out which I mention above.
Team with a high volume of good wins albeit low NET numbers (Indiana, Xavier, UCF)
Teams with a high volume of good wins but a .500 record (Kansas State).
Teams needing likely one more good win and having decent NET numbers (North Carolina and Villanova)
Most of the mid-majors fall in the bid-stealing category (George Mason, Dayton, Santa Clara, San Francisco, Boise State, Colorado State, North Texas, Bradley) with the exception of UC Irvine because if they win out could see their NET reach historical bubble range.

Because the season is not over yet let's use 2+Q1A wins, 3 Q1+ wins, 7+ Q1/Q2 wins…

Big Ten (3): Indiana, Northwestern, USC, Iowa*
Just missed: (Rutgers), Minnesota*, (Washington*)
MWC (3- Possible Bid Thief): Boise State, Colorado State, Nevada
Big 12 (2): UCF, Utah, (Arizona State), (Kansas State) Just missed: TCU*
Big East (2- Possible Bid Thief): Xavier, Villanova*
ACC (2- Possible Bid Thief): North Carolina*, Pittsburgh. Just missed: Stanford
WCC (2- Possible Bid Thief): Santa Clara, San Francisco. Just missed: Oregon State
A-10 (2- Possible Bid Thief): George Mason, Dayton
Big West (1): UC Irvine
Ivy (0): Yale
C-USA (0): Liberty
Southland (0): McNeese
American (Possible Bid Thief): North Texas
MVC (Possible Bid Thief): Just missed: Bradley

Bold Teams have 7+ Q1/Q2 wins or 2+ Q1A wins or 3+ Q1 wins
*Have 6+Q1/Q2 wins, so just below the threshold
(Teams with .500 or below record listed in parenthesis.)
Teams with a strikethrough do not have a Quad 1 win - in terms of the mid-major teams, this is where to find the #12 or #13 seed who could pull a first-round upset.
Also, you have possible bid-stealers in this range: Santa Clara and San Francisco (WCC), Boise State (MWC), UC Irvine (Big West), North Texas (American), Xavier (Big East),