TeamUSATracker: January 11, 2022
One Week until Qualification and TeamUSATracker Win Index Launch
THE COUNTDOWN:
24 Days Until Beijing Winter Olympics Opening Ceremony
Olympic Qualification Window Ends in a Week. I put out this thread with my latest predictions/updates on the TeamUSA roster and feel free to check out the always updated Team USA Tracker. If you have any questions or insights - DM me on Twitter @TeamUSATracker or email at 247teamusa@gmail.com.
@TEAMUSATRACKER WILL TEAM USA COMPETE FOR A MEDAL?:
2 Things @TeamUSATracker got asked the most during Tokyo.
1) What Channel is that Event on Right now?
Good News ICYMI: NBC did announce that will stream all the Beijing Olympics on Peacock
2) How will TEAMUSA do in this Event? Will they Medal?
I saw this tweet from Gracenote Olympic that predicts TeamUSA will be in 4th place on the Medal Table with 22 Medals (7 Gold, 5 Silver, 12 Bronze).
Because so many fans of Team USA are obsessed with the medal count I am launching @TeamUSATracker WIN INDEX
For background Feel free to reach out with any questions but I know this was the most common FAQ during Tokyo does Team USA have a shot of winning a medal in this event so I wanted to create something for Beijing. It is based strictly on Team USA expected performance in their event based on previous World Cups, World Championships, and Olympic experience.
4🏅🏅🏅🏅 Multiple athletes for TeamUSA considered Medal Contenders. TeamUSA has a Gold Medal Favorite in one event . (GREAT CHANCE TO MEDAL )
3🏅🏅🏅 Team USA athlete has a Medal Contender in one event but the clearcut Gold Medal Favorite likely not from TeamUSA. For Team Sports an appearance in the SFS is highly possible. For Freestyle/Snowboarding Sports with a Final (contend for Top 5 finishes)
(AVERAGE TO GOOD CHANCE TO MEDAL)
2 🏅🏅 Team USA athlete (s) could contend for a medal if they have a career day (medal might be bronze) but likely Top 8 finish is best. Re Team Sports QF Finish is most likely (AVERAGE TO LONG SHOT CHANCE TO MEDAL)
1🏅 Team USA Athlete a Top 10 finish or medal would be historic. Re Team Sport/Elimination Bracket Sport athlete not predicted to make it out of prelims and a Top 5 or Top 10 Finish would go a long way to growing that sport for TeamUSA. (EXTREME LONG SHOT TO MEDAL)
NO ATHLETE. TEAM USA DIDN'T QUALIFY ANYONE (NO CHANCE TO MEDAL). You can either say that sport doesn’t matter they only included that sport so that Uzbekistan could win a Gold Medal or you could see an opportunity to start sponsoring a US Athlete to that will become America’s first Olympic medalist in that sport (Women’s Ski Jumping).
A few notes on Gracenote’s prediction it is historically in line with TeamUSA’s performance at a Winter Olympics outside of North America. TeamUSA brought home 23 medals from PyeongChang 2018 and 25 medals from Torino 2006. It is also in line with Team USA duplicating its 2021 World Championships performance across all sports (24 Medals: 7 Gold, 10 Silver, 7 Bronze). Note: 2021 World Championships were held in over ten countries and for example Freestyle Skiing/Snowboarding had its World Championships over 4 countries over the course of a month.
It is important note with any prediction the World Cup schedule of all sports has been interrupted for 3 years (2019-2020, 2020-2021, 2021-2022) with COVID cancellations or positive COVID testing changing season results.
The thing that seems the most alarming with Gracenote’s prediction it would be TeamUSA's smallest Gold medal haul since 1998 Nagano. Since Nagano; TeamUSA has brought home a minimum of 9 Gold Medals every Olympics. AND WAIT THIS OLYMPICS…. TeamUSA is bringing back an experienced team to PyeongChang with 6 individual Gold medalists returning and at least 50% of the roster from 3 team Gold medalists (USA Women’s Hockey, USA Curling, Women’s Cross Country Skiing).
The biggest way for Team USA to hit 9 Gold medals would be with help from US Speedskating. Joey Mantia predicted six medals post the US Trials and US Speedskating brings at least 4 Gold medal Contenders to Beijing having won World Cup starts this fall in Mantia, Men’s Team Pursuit, Erin Jackson, & Brittany Bowe and medal contender Jordan Stolz.
The fun thing about the Olympics is to predict the unexpected spots where TeamUSA could get a medal that the sports world is not really predicting like Men’s Curling picking up Gold in PyeongChang or Jennifer Valente’s Track Cycling Omnium Gold at Tokyo (eagle eyed followers of @TeamUSATracker knew that I saw that coming) .
As Team USA roster starts to ramp up @TeamUSATracker sees nearly half of Team USA could be medal threats and that number could go up. As we all know at the Olympics - the difference between a bronze medal and a 5th place finish can be very small sometimes hundredths of a second.
Looking at the early numbers: Mixed Team Events and news events can play a huge part in TeamUSA Final medal count. Team USA won World Championships Medals in 2 of the 4 Mixed Events (SBX Cross & Aerials) making their debut in Beijing and success in the Mixed Events (Team Figure Skating, Ice Dancing, Team Luge, Curling) and new events (Women’s Monobob & Men’s Freestyle Skiing Big Air in particular) could get TeamUSA north of 22 overall medals and head towards 30 medals more in line with Vancouver 2010 and Salt Lake City 2002.
My Final Note on Medal Prediction:
I think GraceNote does a good job of estimating the home field advantage for China at this Winter Olympics. Chinese athletes have been practicing at the Olympic venues for the past few years and they will perform better than expected. Some sports got one test event (Sliding Sports, Short Track Speed Skating, & Freestyle Skiing/Snowboarding) and some got zero events so Team USA competitors will lack knowledge of the venues that plays a big factor in some of their success on the World Cup.