TeamUSATracker: Final Weekend of Beijing Olympics
17 Medal Events Left: Team USA'S Updated Medal Chances in Every Event
UPDATED MEDAL COUNT:
Medal Count: 21🥇8🥈8🥉5
Team USA with realistic shot for 25 to 28 medals
Update after Day 14 could be 23 to 26 (Curling loss, Halfpipe W no medals)
Currently Tracker Predictions showing 27. Tracker’s Pre Games Prediction was 26
Update: 25 medals
What that means:
4th best medal haul at Winter Olympics Games
Possible chance at tying Most Golds ever (SLC 2002)
Most ever in Asia (beat 2018 total) & 2nd most ever outside North America
Numbers to Remember: Sochi (28), Torino (25), Pyeongchang (23)
Team USA has surpassed all metrics of medal count pre 2002 by raw numbers (Overall, Gold, Silver, Bronze)
In terms of predictions - Team USA likely will surpass the Gracenote Gold Prediction (22) and still in line with Sports Illustrated (27) -two of the services who have done medal projections the longest.
Medals on Day 13: 2 Medals
🥈USA Women’s Hockey
🥉Brittany Bowe: Women’s 1000M
WHAT IS LEFT FOR MEDAL CHANCES?
3 more days of the Winter Olympics left and there are 51 medals to give out in 17 events
Team USA is only in 14 of those medal events. Zero entries left in Biathlon Men’s Mass Start (Top 30 only qualified), Men’s Hockey (QF Loss in a Shootout, Team USA was in a weak pool ), Women’s Curling (6th place, best finish since 2002, would have qualified in World Championships format)
Update 9 Medal Events left
To get to 10 Gold Medals for Team USA(tie best finish ever) let’s assume Team Figure Skating Event medal will be upgraded. That is 9.
Events with the Best Gold Medal Chances are Men’s Halfpipe Freestyle and Two- Woman Bobsled -Both are these events are on Day 15. (Friday night/Saturday morning in the US). To make it easier I put all the 14 medal chances in reverse order below
THE 16 SEED defeating a 1 SEED Type Shot Type Medal
14 events left… Team USA has 9 events with medal contenders in the next 14
These 5 events …yes they could have a lane in Final (Rowdy Gaines) but it is a very long shot.. It is a 16 seed beating 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. It only happened once and the Europeans are not coached by Tony Bennett of Virginia
(14) Men’s Ski Cross (Day 14) : Tyler Wallasch.
Good News: Wallasch had a top 4 finish in Men’s Ski Cross this world -best finish for Team USA at a Ski Cross World Cup since 2014 (before Sochi).
Bad News: Wallasch only made QFs in 33% of his World Cup starts and did not make QFs in the last 5 World Cup races. Team USA has never had a men’s ski cross racer make the QFs at the Olympics and Wallasch is the first ski cross entry for Team USA since Sochi.
(13) Women’s Biathlon (Day 14) : Deedra Irwin had the best ever finish by a US Biathlete (7) at the Beijing Olympics. That helped Irwin make the Mass Start but she is Bib #30 out of 30 competitors so the #16 seed. And as you may have heard US Biathlon has never won a medal at the Olympics.
Update: Wallasch did not advanced past Rof32. Finished 4th in Heat after qualifying 24th
(12) Figure Skating Pairs (Day 15): Two entries (Alexa Knierim/Brandon Frazier, Ashley Cain-Gribble/Timothy LeDuc). Knierim/Frazier were part of “GOLD” medal Team Figure Skating team. But Team USA History has never won Gold in this Event. Last medal was a Bronze in 1988 and both teams were only alternates to the Grand Prix Finale based on their based scores. Anything above Top 15 would be an improvement from 2018 …anything Top 8 would be best finish since 2006 .. Top 3 does not seem in the cards.
Update: Knierim/Frazier and Cain-Gribble/Leduc will be Top 7 after Paris short program will be very hard to leapfrog 2 Chinese Teams and 3 #ROCCheaters Teams
(11) Men’s Cross Country Skiing 50 KM Free (Day 15): The marathon of the Winter Olympics except there has never been a non European medalist. Team USA has only one medal in the Winter Olympics and one medal at the World Championships in Team USA’s history. They will likely only place two in field (Scott Patterson, Gus Schumacher) and anything in Top 10 would be Best Day Ever. Scott Patterson did finish 23rd at this event at 2019 World Championships & 21 year old Gus Schumacher actually doesn’t have a comparable race we would need to look at 2020 Jr. World Championships where he finished 5th in 30 KM. Schumacher’s best chance in this event might be at the 2030 Olympics.
Update: Only Scott Patterson entered the race. Gus Schumacher did not
(10) Women’s Speed Skating Mass Start (Day 15) 2018 Team Pursuit Bronze Medalist Mia Kilburg will compete in her last event of this Olympics with 19 year Giorgia Birkeland making her Olympic Debut who could be one of the future stars of US Women’s Speed Skating. Anything can happen in Mass Start and Kilburg finished 5th at the last Mass Start in Calgary (along with two 9th place finishes) Mia Kilburg should be in the final (Top 8 from each Semifinal advance and the key for Kilburg’s long shot medal chances is will Birkeland advance as well )
FUTURE IS NOW CHANCE
(9) 4-Man Bobsled (Day 16) USA 1 likely is Hunter Church, Charlie Volker, Kris Horn, Josh Williamson. Church earned a bronze World Cup medal with this team in January in Germany. Church has won two career World Cup medals in Europe the first US pilot to do that since the late Gold Medalist Steve Holcomb.
Church has some good 4MBOB training runs (Top 6) so they could contend for Bronze (we should know after first two runs). It is a young team with the push athletes being poster boys for crossover athletes coming over to Bobsled and making Team USA a medal contender in the sport: Volker (former 1st team All Ivy College FB RB at Princeton), Williamson (former Lacrosse Player at Mercer), and Horn (former All American in Decathlon at UMass).
(8) Jordan Stolz (Day 14) - Inspired by Apolo Ohno at 5 years old and starting on a back yard pond -the 17 year old is the next big thing in US Speed Skating. Every time he skates the Dutch tweet about him and if the Dutch are tweeting about a US Speed Skater look out. SI predicted to medal in the 1000M and if he runs the race of his life could have a shot. Stolz future could be filled with medals in 2026 or 2030/2034 (when a North American Winter Olympics should happen)
Update: Jordan Stolz finished 14th and Austin Kleba finished 29th
50-50 CHANCE (GOAT CHANCES)
(7) Jessie Diggins - Women’s Cross County 30 KM Freestyle (Day 16) - The Women’s Marathon of the Winter Olympics and America can take inspiration from Molly Seidel’s bronze in Tokyo. Diggins is trying to win another historic medal at the Winter Olympics (she already has 2). Like the men- no non European has ever won a medal in the 30 KM race. Diggins is the GOAT Of US Cross Country. Out of the 9 Medals Team USA has won at the Olympics or World Championships - Jessie Diggins has won 6 (individually or as part of team) of them. 6 out of 9. Let that sink in . Plus Diggins finished 4th at 2019 World Championships in this race and discussed that her legs cramped up. And speaking of distance Diggins won the 2021 Tour de Ski becoming the first non European to win that so Diggins sees history and breaks it.
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(6) John Shuster and Team Shuster vs Canada in BRONZE Medal Game (Day 14)
The Only US Skip (GOAT) ever to Beat Canada at the Olympics for Team USA in Curling is John Shuster. I’m @TeamUSATracker and I’m betting on Team Shuster going for his 3rd medal in Curling (2 is already a record) as they regroup after a tough loss to World Champs Scotland in Semifinals. This game will be tonight (1:05 AMET, USA Network)
Since 1998 🇺🇸vs 🇨🇦 in #Curling in #Olympics
Playoffs: 1-1 (Win 2018 SF, Lost 1998 SF)
Overall: 2-19 (@TeamShuster has won 2 out of last 3. both in 2018)
Men: 2-8
Mixed: 0-2
Women: 0-9
🇨🇦 Most #Curling medals in #Olympics (11) but if they don't win this game 🇸🇪could surpass them in Beijing.
Update: Team Shuster lost to Canada 8-5 in Bronze Medal Match
THE BEST CHANCES
(5) Women’s Freestyle Halfpipe (Day 14) - Hanna Faulhaber, 2018 Bronze Medalist Brita Sigourney, and the remarkable comeback of Carly Marguiles lead Team USA into the Finals tonight on NBC (830 PMET). American born Eileen Gu (competing for China) is the Gold Medal favorite but Hanna Faulhaber & Brita Sigourney could challenge for a Silver or Bronze like they have in events (Dew Tour, X Games, FIS World Cup events) leading up to the 2022 Winter Olympics
Update: No Medal. Hanna Faulhaber finished 6th - Top US Finisher. American born Eileen Gu won Gold.
(4) Alpine Skiing- Team Event (Day 15)
I liked Mikaela Shiffrin NBC interview post her 3rd DNF of this Olympics and she posted on social media “It is not the end of the World to fail 5 times at the Olympics”.
And like I said on Twitter- 11 World Cups & 5 World Championships - Team USA has only finished on the podium once in this event… Guess who was on that Team Mikaela Shiffrin. It is a rule of @TeamUSATracker if Mikaela Shiffrin races Team USA they will be a medal contender in that race. Strength of Team USA may be Paula Moltzan and River Radamus who are world class PSL ski racers who in this format will need to win their 2 races in each round and the good news for Team USA they both had some career best performances at this Olympics.
Update: Bracket they face Slovakia in Rof16 and Italy/ROCCheaters in QFS winner. Would likely face Switzerland in SFs.
(3) Joey Mantia - Men’s Mass Start Speed Skating (Day 15) - Mantia is skipping the 1000M to concentrate on the Mass Start. He won Gold at the 2021 Worlds but every Mass Start is different but Mantia should have a lane in the final and hopefully Ian Quinn will join him in the Finals for support (Top 8 each SF advance so 16 in Finals) . Can Mantia become the 3rd from Ocala, FL to pick up an individual medal in Beijing? Would love that storyline as we talk about the bounce back Olympics for US Speed Skating.
Update: Joey Mantia skipped 1000M due to back issues. Resting for Mass Start but concerning re injury
(2) Women’s Bobsled (Day 15) Two Aces (Kaillie Humphries & Elana Meyers Taylor) are back again and you have to be impress with how Kaillie Humphries is driving the track in China. Run 1 and Run 2 start on Day 14 at 7:00 AMET (Peacock)
Update: Germans are 1st and 2nd post Run 1. Elana Meyers Taylor/Sylvia Hoffman in 3rd. Kaillie Humphries/Kaysha Love in 4th after they had a slight hit. Very close Top 8.
(1) Men’s Freestyle Halfpipe (Day 15) Team USA has 4 skiers in the 12 person final. Who are they ?
(Behind Door #1) Back to Back Gold Medalist David Wise. Trying to be only 2nd US Athlete to 3 win Golds at the Winter Olympics in same event (joining Bonnie Blair)
(Behind Door #2) #1 in the World Aaron Blunck. 2 Time World Champ (2017 & 2019)
(Behind Door #3) Silver Medalist Alex Ferreira. #3 in the World and Ferreira won two of the 6 US Tryout Events before Olympics (Dew Tour, FIS Copper Mountain)
(Behind Door #4) 2021 World Bronze Medalist Birk Irving. Irving qualified in a Top 3 spot and won the 2016 Youth Olympics Gold in Half Pipe. Irving will try to join fellow 2016 YOG Gold Medalist Chloe Kim on the medal stand in 2022.
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