THE NUMBER:
80
In a very short time period NCAA March Madness will expand to 80 teams and common sense plans have laid out an 80 team tournament would have 48 teams (33 at large, 15 automatic bids) getting byes and the final 16 automatic berths and final 16 at large teams playing in First Four games.
Indiana State and College BB’s media favorite March star Robbie Avila wish the expansion could happen in 2024 because Indiana State Sycamores in the midst of one their best seasons since Larry Bird played in Terre Haute are squarely on the bubble after losing to Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference. A weak non Conference SOS and lack of a signature win (losses in games at Alabama and at Michigan State) have Indiana State putting their best foot forward with wins at Bradley and home vs Drake and rooting for Florida Atlantic to win the American Conference and Dayton to win the A10 to keep those leagues as one bid leagues.
Looking at the projected 2024 Men’s NCAA Tournament heading into the final week before Selection Sunday
36 teams have really done enough to receive an at large berth. 10 of those teams could win their conference tournament this week opening an at large spot for a bubble team. 25 teams (that could be a generous amount) remain on the bubble with 24 teams still have a conference tournament where they can secure an at-large spot with some wins or an automatic spot. The most likely bid stealers could come from the aforementioned AAC or A10 who will have a bubble team or bid stealer in their conference finals and Pac 12, ACC, and Big East where a bubble team will be in the semifinals. The bubble will get smaller as some bubble teams meet in their first conference tournament game (Big 10: Iowa vs Ohio State, Big East: Seton Hall vs St. John’s) or are expected to meet in the quarterfinals/semifinals ( ACC: Wake vs Pitt, Pac 12: Colorado vs Utah, AAC: USF vs Memphis) that will prove to be an elimination game for the loser.
21 of 32 conferences will send only one team to the tournament. Most of the these one-bid conferences will send a team with a NET ranking outside the Top 100 so if you look down the line at expansion to 80 teams- most of these one bid leagues would send their conference champion to the play in game for a #15 or #16 seed.
This year’s bubble is dominated by the power conference teams the Power 6 conferences (Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big East, Pac 12, and Big 12) and Mountain West conference make up nearly 90% of the bubble. An expanded tournament would likely result in an expanded bubble that could actually help out mid major leagues like American, A10, Sun Belt, MVC, CUSA. The proverbial wisdom is that only the Power 5 would get the 12 extra at large bids if the NCAA Tournament went to 80 teams. If you look at the NIT over the last 3 years (excluding COVID years of 2020 and 2021)- about a quarter of the first 16 teams selected for NIT came from a non Power 5 conference. An expanded tournament to 80 teams would likely be great for South Florida who under first year coach Amir Abdur-Rahim has only lost 2 games since December 2 and won the American Conference by beating FAU and Memphis in the midst of a 15 game winning streak. South Florida likely needs to win AAC tournament to make for the NCAA Tournament in an expanded field of 80 they might be getting in with a lost in the AAC SFs or finals. Other mid-major conference teams that might be getting attention and multiple bid leagues might include the MVC (Drake, Indiana State, Bradley) A10 (Dayton, Richmond, Loyola Chicago) Sun Belt (App State, JMU). And a future Cinderella in 2024 like McNeese (Southland) Princeton (Ivy) or Grand Canyon (WAC) might have a second chance if they do not win their conference tournament First Four at large game.
As we prep for 80 field NCAA tournament (it might come after 2032 because of the TV deal with CBS/TNT) there is some math that makes it works. In 1985 - NCAA Division had 282 teams for 64 spots(22%) . 30 years later in the 2025 season NCAA Division 1 Basketball has 363 teams for 68 spots (18%). The move to 80 teams would adjust this percentage back to 22% noting that some small mid major conferences such as Big South, America East, NEC, MEAC might add Division 2 colleges to expand and keep automatic bid to NCAA Tournament in case they lose members to other conferences.. After conference expansion in 2024-2025 when Big Ten and ACC go up to 18 teams for basketball - these 5 leagues (Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big East, and Big 12) will make up 20% of the teams in Division 1 basketball (in 1985 they were only 16% of NCAA Division 1 Basketball). Add in perennial multi-bid leagues like Mountain West and West Coast Conference and those 7 conferences will account for nearly 30% of D1 basketball teams. Looking at the last ten NCAA tournaments only ten* leagues (American, A10, MVC*) have sent multiple teams to NCAA tournaments and in 2024-2025 those ten leagues will make up 40% of D1 teams. At 18 teams - the ACC and Big Ten are double more than 6 (America East, Big South, Ivy, MEAC, NEC, Summit) of the 31 Division 1 basketball conferences.
*Note The OVC sent Murray State and Belmont (at-large, First Four) to the NCAA Tournament in 2019 but now both play in the MVC. Pac 12 will not have any representatives next year. 2012 both the MAAC and C-USA sent 2 teams including at-large teams Iona (#14 seed, First Four) and (Southern Miss, #9 seed)
Here is my Current Bracketology as of March 10, 2024
Check out all of my picks and others on the Bracket Matrix