Mid-Majors crowd the bubble and make the NCAA Tournament for first time ever; #1 Seeds emerge post Conference Tournaments
Women's Bracketology 3/11
First Time and Bubble Time for Mid-Majors:
Good News for Mid-Major Teams: George Mason (A-10 Tournament Champion) and Arkansas State (Sun Belt Tournament Champion) will make their first appearance at the NCAA Women’s Tournament this year.
Purdue Fort-Wayne (Horizon League) could join them on Tuesday afternoon if they beat Green Bay. FDU or Chicago State will join them on Thursday night, playing a de facto NEC title game in the NEC semifinals because Stonehill and Le Moyne (who are playing in the other semifinal) are both ineligible due to their transition to Division I.
The WAC Tournament begins today where Grand Canyon (regular-season champion, undefeated during the regular season in conf. play) could also lock in their first-ever NCAA Women’s Tournament appearance.
Three mid-major conference regular season champions lost on Monday (James Madison, UTSA, Gonzaga), and it brings the total number to four mid-major regular season champions losing in the conference tournament if you include Richmond which lost Saturday in the A-10 Tournament semifinals to Saint Joseph’s on a buzzer-beater.
These conference tournament losses are crowding the bubble with mid-majors as Saint Joseph’s subsequent loss to George Mason in the A-10 final put the Hawks on the bubble.
So, can these mid-majors make the Field of 68? I hope so….
I would love it if the First Four were four mid-major teams: JMU, the 2 Ivy League teams that don’t win the tournament, Saint Joseph’s, or UTSA playing in the First Four.
Much like the NCAA Men’s Tournament, much of the First Four Out/Next Four Out will be mid-major teams, and expansion to 76 teams really would aid mid-major regular season conference champions like JMU or UTSA who fail to win their conference tournament or mid-major teams with multiple Quad 1 wins and some puzzling Quad 3/Quad 4 losses like Saint Joseph’s.
The Case for James Madison
James Madison: (28-5, 18-0 Sun Belt record, NET: 53, Torvik WAB: 42, KPI: 39) belongs in the NCAA Tournament even though they don’t have a Quad 1 win.
The Dukes had not lost a Sun Belt game all year until they blew a 17-point lead vs Arkansas State in the Sun Belt Championship.
Even though the resume metrics (Torvik WAB and KPI) are unofficial - they do show how James Madison does stack up well vs other bubble team. On Torvik WAB for example, James Madison is ten spots ahead of Princeton and Virginia Tech and one spot ahead of Washington, other teams that have been floated by bracketologists for the First Four game.
Yes, Iowa State has a Quad 1 win in March, a 22-point dismantling of Kansas State on their home floor (more on K-State’s bad finish to the season below), but the Cyclones went 1-9 in ten Quad 1 games. If JMU had seven more chances for a Quad 1 win, they likely would have a couple of Quad 1 wins.
A deeper dive at their schedule shows the following
JMU’s end of season: Dukes finished the season 20-1 (JMU was on a 20-game winning streak before a loss to Arkansas State)
Road Record: 12-2
Q1: 0-3 (losses to Texas, at Notre Dame, at NC State) - all three teams will be #1 and #2 seeds much higher seeds than Kansas State
Q1/Q2: 2-3 (Q2 wins vs Florida (neutral) and at Villanova). Florida has a NET of #50 and beat Alabama during last week’s SEC Tournament. Villanova also beat another team that entered March as a bubble team Marquette in the Big East Tournament.
Q3/Q4: 26-2 (both losses in OT to Northern Arizona and Arkansas State, who could both end up in NCAA Tournament)
Q3 wins include Ball State (MAC Regular Season Champion, who could end up in NCAA Tournament)
JMU’s coach Sean O’Regan after the game: “We are not finished playing, that’s a certainty. I don’t know what tournament it is gonna be in. Obviously, I hope for one more than the other-no offense to the other. We are not done playing is the good thing.”
UTSA: Went out too early
UTSA (26-4 overall, 17-1 American record, NET: 69, Torvik WAB: 56)
HC Karen Aston after the quarterfinal loss to Rice pointed out that UTSA likely needed to lose later in the tournament for an at-large berth: “ I did feel like that it was necessary for us to win a game or two in the tournament, so I'm a little bit indifferent… It's a tough ride. I mean, that's what I think is very unfortunate about regular conference champions not getting automatics because -- I mean, that's a lot harder, to me, to play the 18 games and go 17-1, the way that we did. I'm going to be really, really disappointed, but there's not a whole lot I can do about that. We've pled our case, and I'll hope for the best and if not, then I think we're an automatic for the WBIT as far as from what I understand.”
Gonzaga: Sometimes it is about more than just basketball
Gonzaga: (22-10, 17-3 WCC record)
Gonzaga HC Lisa Fortier, breast cancer survivor (Fortier had been diagnosed with breast cancer last February and coached the Zags to the Sweet 16 without revealing the diagnosis and treatment publicly until the fall), spent the post-game talking about how much this team meant to her. It was one of those moments from March Madness we all realized that basketball is so much more than just about basketball.
In terms of basketball, Gonzaga will miss the NCAA Tournament for only the third time since their first tournament appearance in 2007 (The Zags had made 15 of the last 17 NCAA Tournaments). Gonzaga should be invited to the WBIT extending two-time West Coast POY Yvonne Ejim’s career by a couple more games. WCC co-champion, Portland, will look to win their third straight West Coast Conference title against Oregon State, but the league will likely be a one-bid league for the first time since 2018.
Can the A-10 get 3 Bids for the First time since 2016?
Richmond’s resume (27-6, 17-1 A-10 record, NET: 33, KPI: 28, Torvik WAB: 40) with Quad 1 win over Oklahoma State and 5 Quad 2 wins (Fairfield, Columbia, Saint Joseph’s (2), and George Mason) will be a lock for the NCAA Tournament. George Mason, the conference tournament champion, is also a lock.
Saint Josephs’ (23-9, 12-6 A-10 record, NET: 55, Torvik WAB: 76) is on the bubble after losing to Mason in the A-10 final. The Hawks have 2 Quad 1 wins (the win over Richmond, at George Mason) and just missed a third Quad 1 win with a one-point overtime loss at Utah. Will the Committee over look the Hawks’ three Quad 4 losses (home to Duquesne, at VCU, and at Dayton) and focus on their overall profile especially their win over Richmond during the A-10 tournament.
HC Cindy Griffin on the team’s inclusion after the loss: “This is something that our team had a goal to, to win a championship. We came up obviously a little short. But overall, I think our body of work this year, especially this weekend, has been phenomenal.”
#1 Seeds
The AP Top 25 came out Monday with #1 UCLA, #2 South Carolina, #3 UConn, and #4 USC and UCLA, South Carolina, and UConn all receiving first place votes.
After the poll was released, UConn won their 12th straight conference tournament title (5 since rejoining Big East, the previous 7 in The American) with their third double-digit win this season over Creighton.
Likely all four teams will be #1 seeds it just depends in what order….I do the hope the Committee keeps.
The most interesting decision the Committee likely will need to make will be the four #4 seeds (last seeds that get to host home games) but teams ranked #15 to #20 (see Top 20 below) in the latest AP poll all have a shot for the 4 seed.
Kentucky and Baylor seem to be locks but the final two #4 seeds could be a host of teams
#15 Ohio State did make the Big Ten semifinals and seem on paper to be the best shot to join the other two teams as a #4 seed.
#18 Maryland lost to Michigan in the QFs, after beating Ohio State to finish the regular season. Do the Terps have a case over #15 Ohio State? Do the Wolverines have a case over the Terps?
#20 Tennessee and #25 Ole Miss both finished the season with 6 Quad 1 wins. Tennessee beat Ole Miss on February 16 but the Lady Vols also finished the season losing three of their last four games including at home to Georgia after the second reveal on Feb. 27 where the Committee put Tennessee at a number 3 seed.
Despite 5 Big 12 teams being ranked in the Top 20, they might end with 3 of the 5 teams having to win on the road to make the Sweet 16.
#19 Kansas State’s losses to fellow Big 12 teams #16 West Virginia and #17 Oklahoma State at the end of the season likely drops them from the 4 seed line. West Virginia went 2-5 in Quad 1 games (both wins over K-State) likely not enough to warrant a #4 seed while the Cowgirls won seven of their last ten games including beat Kansas State, Colorado, and Arizona but losses at BYU (Quad 3) and at Houston (Quad 4) in conference play likely keep them off the four seed line.
