In-Season Selection Show Time....
Men's Bracketology Update 2/14 (Friday before In-Season Bracket Reveal)
The Men's Basketball Selection Committee will reveal its in-season top 16 (Seeds 1 to 4 in each region) on Saturday, Feb. 15, at 12:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
We can learn some things from previous years and try to apply to this year’s tournament.
Since 2017 (the first year of the show), every team in the Top 16 in-season revel has made the NCAA tournament.
As mentioned by NCAA Director of Media Coordination/Statistics David Worlock this week on X, 84% (94 of 112) have stayed as a Top 4 seed come Selection Sunday. 17 of the 18 teams that fell out of the Top 4 seeds were 3 or 4 seeds (2021 Villanova was the only team to go from #2 seed to outside Top 4, and they lost four of their final seven games plus faced a shortened season due to COVID so played a lot less games before February in-season reveal).
Only 5 teams have dropped to #7 seed or lower in the first round after the in-season reveal. Those teams are a combined 1-4 in Round 1, with the only win coming when two teams that dropped out of #4 seeds played each other in Round 1 in the 2021 NCAA Tournament (COVID year tournament). #8 Oklahoma (#3 seed in-season reveal) beat #9 Missouri (#4 seed in-season reveal) in Round 1.
22 of 28 (78%) of the #1 seeds have kept their #1 seed on Selection Sunday. That number averages out to 3 of 4 #1 seeds a year staying as #1 seed come March.
2023 was the only time all 4 #1 seeds stayed a #1 seed for the NCAA Tournament. The 2023 NCAA Tournament also saw ZERO #1 seeds making the Elite Eight for the first time in history.
Only one #1 seed fell below a #2 seed (2017 Baylor, who fell to #3 seed after losing four of their final seven games after the in-season reveal. The Bears were eliminated from the NCAA Tournament in the Sweet 16 to #7 seed and eventual Final Four team South Carolina.)
If a team is not included in the in-season reveal, don’t worry. 2023 UConn won the National Championship as #4 seed after not being included, and the entire 2023 Final Four (UConn, San Diego State, Florida Atlantic, Miami) were not included in the in-season reveal. 12 of the 28 Final Four teams since 2017 have not been included in the in-season reveal, including one national champion (2023 UConn) and three runner-ups (2023 San Diego State, 2019 Texas Tech, 2018 Michigan).
The final thing we learn from the in-season reveals is what this Committee thinks of this season of men’s college basketball. In terms of my bracket, I updated it from Tuesday to Friday, and these are the questions I am looking at getting an answer to from the NCAA Selection Committee.
Question 1: How strong do they think the SEC is?
In terms of the in-season selection reveal, I think the SEC will have six teams in the Top 16 (with Ole Miss and Missouri just missing due to an out-of-conference loss to Memphis). But if the Committee puts 8 SEC teams in the Top 16, well, put in Sharpie a 13 or 14-bid SEC should be considered the norm for this season.
Question 2: What do make of the Big East (St. John’s)?
I am most interested in where the Selection Committee puts St. John’s (3 or 4 seed due to a 3-4 record in Quad 1 games) and if Marquette gets a Top 4 seed since they have wins over Purdue, Wisconsin, and Maryland in non-conference.
Question 3: The Memphis Question: Resume Metrics vs Quality Metrics?
Currently, I have Memphis as my fourth Top 4 seed, and I could easily see Kansas, Marquette (see above), or Ole Miss (see above) getting a fourth seed instead. I do think Memphis (high resume metrics like WAB, SOR, and KPI vs poor quality metrics like BPI, KenPom, Torvik) and Arizona (low resume metrics vs high quality metrics) will be interesting in terms of seeding and how the Selection Committee might seed come March. The analysts who created told Andy Katz they would advise the Selection Committee to seed and place teams in the field based on resume metrics like WAB, KPI, and SOR and only use the quality metrics when you are comparing teams that are close in resume metrics.
Question 4: Where do all the Big Ten Teams Go?
Purdue will likely be a #2 seed even with their loss to Michigan on Tuesday. Michigan State (I have a #3 seed likely too high) and Michigan and Wisconsin as #4 seed. Likely, all four of these teams will be named by the Selection Committee, and the Big Ten currently has eight teams in the top 30 of WAB rankings as they perform well this season in the resume metrics (who they beat). I could see seven Big Ten teams (Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, plus UCLA, Maryland, and Illinois) winning the Big Ten tournament and finishing off the season with enough big wins to warrant a Top 4 seed.
Question 5: The buffer between the Top 8 and Bottom 8- how big is it?
(This might be answered more in the interview with the Selection Committee Chairman.)
I think the top eight teams (#1 and #2 seeds) are in a different tier than any team looking for #3, #4, or #5 seed. Will Warren had a similar thought and a great post today comparing the possible 2025 tournament to 2008, 2009, and 2017 in terms of top-heavy teams. It should be noted that the 2008 NCAA Tournament was the only year that all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (it did feature an Elite Eight run by #10 seed Davidson and G Stephen Curry, so it could be good news for Drake and UC San Diego fans). Also, to the point above, that #4 or #5 seeds could be a little weaker. 2008 NCAA Tournament featured four first-round upsets from #12 seeds and #13 seeds as it was one of only two NCAA tournaments where two #12 seeds and two #13 seeds have won first-round games in the same year. The 2009 NCAA Tournament saw three #12 seeds take down #5 seed in the first round (tied for most in tournament history). Note on the five #12 seeds who won games in 2008 and 2009: 3 of them were at-large teams from major conferences, something that I think could happen if Drake and UC San Diego win their conference tournament.
BRACKET UPDATES
Wake Forest’s home loss to Florida State, San Francisco’s loss at Gonzaga, and Texas picking up their 8th SEC loss knocked those three teams out of the field. Currently, KenPom is predicting 5 of the 14 SEC teams in the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee category to 7-11 or 6-12 in conference play. This could cause the SEC to be more an 11-bid league, not a 14-bid league if that happens, and might help mid-major teams like Drake, UC San Diego, and VCU if they don’t win their conference tournament.
Update Since Tuesday
In: Arkansas, BYU, VCU
Out: Texas, Wake Forest, San Francisco
Note: The bubble is shrinking. I considered another ten teams and put another seven teams in a category of playing their way on the bubble. I did cut teams like Rutgers or Arizona State, who, if they got hot like Kansas State has in recent weeks they could join the bubble because of a lot of Q1 wins, but given their losses in conference play, there is not a high chance of that happening. I do think the American, A-10 (if VCU wins out), and WCC, along with the power conferences ACC and Big East, could be ripe for bid stealers, and a team that deserves an at-large NCAA Tournament berth will be left out.