The Countdown:
422 Days until Paris Opening Ceremonies
44 Days until World Aquatics World Championships
50 Days until Women’s World Cup
80 Days until Track and Field World Championships
86 Days Until FIBA Men’s Basketball World Cup (68 Days until first exhibition game) Roster Breakdown: In Focus
Major Tournaments/World Championships this Week: FIBA 3x3 World Cup (YouTube), French Open (TC Plus, Tennis Channel, Peacock), World Taekwondo Championships (YouTube), Para Ice Hockey World Championships (YouTube), ISA World Surfing Games (Olympics.com), The Memorial (Golf Channel, CBS Sports)
🔎IN FOCUS: WHO IS GOING TO BE ON TEAM USA Men’s BASKETBALL ROSTER THIS SUMMER?
One of the biggest change for Team USA in Men’s Basketball from Tokyo is behind the scenes where Grant Hill took over for Jerry Colangelo as the managing director of USA Basketball. Colangelo had the title since April 2005 in that time Team USA went 4 for 4 with winning Olympics gold medals and added 2 World Cup gold medals for good measure as well.
One change that Grant Hill has implemented is getting rid of multiyear commitments from players if they wanted to play in the Olympics. There will also not be a cutdown for the pros committed to World Cup or the Olympics so more of the roster work is picking the right 12 and getting the right 12 to commit for Team USA.
Team USA men’s basketball for the 2023 World Cup will likely greatly differ from the team headed to Paris. Only one member of the 2019 World Cup team made the Tokyo roster and the Redeem Team was the last time when half of the Olympic squad came from the previous World Cup team and all six players were under 25 (James, Anthony, Wade, Bosh, Paul, and Howard). Given the grind of the NBA season plus add in the travel factor -this third World Cup or Olympics held in Asia in last five years- Team USA may avoid bringing players over thirty, players off an extended playoff run, and players who have previously played for Team USA and have guaranteed themselves a spot for Paris.
In terms of Team USA basketball historically teams that win at the Olympics and World Cups including these four things.
Piece 1) An Explosive Scoring Forward/Forwards
Piece 2) Perimeter Defense
Piece 3) Long Range Help
Piece 4) Big Man Defense
Using these factors I came up with the following projected roster- more in depth reasoning and stats below but Team USA can build a team with about 40 plus NBA stars who could fill these needs and create another Gold Medal winning team for Paris.
FULL PROJECTED ROSTER
Projected Roster for World Cup (*Previous Team USA experience)
Guards (5): Alex Caruso, Bradley Beal, Desmond Bane, Donovan Mitchell*, Trae Young
Forwards (5): Julius Randle, Paolo Banchero, Evan Mobley, Mikal Bridges, Scottie Barnes
Centers (2): Jaren Jackson Jr., Jarrett Allen
I could see another 15 players in consideration for Team USA World Cup Roster
Guards: De’Aaron Fox (I could see Fox not playing because of injury at end of year-if he wants to play likely will make roster), Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Haliburton, Darius Garland, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Maxey, Kevin Huerter
Forwards: Patrick Williams, Keegan Murray, Jalen Williams, Trey Murphy III
Centers: Myles Turner*, Kevon Looney, Mitchell Robinson, Walker Kessler, Brook Lopez*
There could be another 15 veterans not playing in the World Cup this summer but added for Paris. If they do play this summer added bonus for Team USA
Guards: Steph Curry*, Jrue Holiday*, Damian Lillard*, Devin Booker*, Ja Morant, Zach LaVine*, Kawhi Leonard
Forwards: Jayson Tatum*, Jimmy Butler*, DeMar DeRozan*, Kevin Durant*, Jaylen Brown*,
Centers: Bam Adebayo*, Anthony Davis*, Joel Embiid
1) EXPLOSIVE ALL NBA SCORING FORWARDS
Team USA member and Sydney gold medalist Ray Allen recently said this “I guarantee you that by 2028, it’s going to be stiffer for the Americans to say that we’re the best country in the world at basketball. If you look at the leagues in Europe, there are a lot of kids coming up that are going to be way better than American players.... Look at the top 10 best players in the league. Around 75% are not born in the USA”
Ray Allen’s comments is a warning shot that many Team USA Basketball fans worry about.
In the 2022-2023 season- 50% of the All-NBA Team (1st and 2nd Team) were not US born players and the 2023 NBA Draft expects #1 pick to be French phenom Victor Wembanayama whom ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski called “the greatest prospect in the history of team sports”.
The only good news for American basketball fans is that the 6 foreign born all NBA Team members currently represent a different country in FIBA and Team USA keeps on producing All NBA forwards. As everyone waits on Wemby - Team USA will have a bevy of forwards in the 2023 NBA Draft who could be NBA Stars- Brandon Miller, the Thompson twins, Taylor Hendricks, Cam Whitmore, Gradey Dick, etc
Over the last 3 seasons - 10 different forwards have been named All NBA (1st team, 2nd team, or 3rd team) and 80% of them are Americans. That is great news for Team USA who has always had an All NBA forward position lead Team USA in scoring every time they won Olympic gold from the Dream Team (Charles Barkley) to London, Rio, Tokyo (Kevin Durant). In between Barkley and Durant - Vince Carter, Dwyane Wade, Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, Paul George, DeMar DeRozan and Jimmy Butler have all suited up for Team USA. And if you look at Team’s USA 2004 Athens team which won a bronze medal recent all NBA forwards Tracy McGrady, Chris Webber, Ron Artest, Paul Pierce, Jamal Mashburn and Ray Allen DID NOT play for Team USA in Athens.
For Team USA right now for Paris the big recruit is first team All NBA forward Jayson Tatum. Given the Celtics’ long playoff run- Tatum and all NBA forward Jaylen Brown will likely skip the World Cup in 2023 but Tatum has been quoted that he wants to play in Paris . Grant Hill had said he picked up two commitments from previous Team USA members- I imagine fellow Duke basketball player Tatum is one of them. The big question for Paris will be if older all NBA forwards Kevin Durant, Jimmy Butler, DeMar DeRozan all have called it on their international career with Team USA or if they play one more time. Hill’s policy not asking for multi year commitment might allow Hill to recruit Jimmy Butler when he is not coming off a run to the NBA Finals with the Heat.
The 2023 World Cup roster begins with grooming the next generation of forwards and that is the last two NBA Rookie of the Year winners Scottie Barnes and Paolo Banchero. I have been tracking the Banchero situation for some time - Seattle born and raised -Banchero was cut as a teenager by Team USA (U16 and U18 teams) and Banchero was then recruited by Italy to play for them at the Tokyo Olympics. Because of COVID - Banchero has not played for Italy yet and could still play for Team USA or Italy in terms of FIBA eligibility. Per Banchero’s own words on an April podcast - Banchero might play for Team USA because of the recruiting pitch of fellow Duke basketball player Grant Hill. Hill confirmed this week to Italian newspaper (taunting your opponent with Hill breaking this with the Italian media)- “Paolo is an extraordinary talent and he's already a top player in the league. For sure, he's one of those players that we're following for the World Cup and also for the future of Team USA." The priority for Hill at the 2023 World Cup is putting Banchero on Team USA’s roster to lock up his FIBA eligibility for the next few Olympic cycles. Banchero and Brooks might not be only forwards making their debuts in the Phillipines, Hill likely will look at Julius Randle, Mikal Bridges, and Evan Mobley too. Randle was one of the biggest snubs from the Tokyo team and just made his 2nd all NBA team (3rd team 2022-2023 season). The 21 year old Evan Mobley made first team all NBA Defensive Team this season after Bridges had made first team all NBA Defensive Team the previous season. Others who could factor in the youth movement would be All NBA Rookie team first team selections Keegan Murray and Jalen Williams who should be USA Select Team members and could be possible call-ups if others pull out.
In terms of looking at the results with young NBA forwards leading the result it has been a mixed bag of results at World Cup for Team USA. In 2019 an injury to Jayson Tatum was a big reason for Team USA’s 7th place finish as Joe Harris went from USA Select Team to starting the World Cup. In 2010 Kevin Durant made his introduction on the global stage and lead Team USA to Gold (his first of four Gold Medals for Team USA- 3 Olympics, 1 World Cup). In 2002 a young Paul Pierce was the centerpiece of a Team USA team that played poorly at home and became the first USA team made up of all NBA players to lose to a team from another county losing three times once to Argentina led by Manu Ginolbi, once to Yugoslavia led by All NBA selection Peja Stojaković, and once to Spain led by Pau Gasol.
2) PERIMETER DEFENSE
Multiple reports have Grant Hill and Steve Kerr reaching out to First Team All NBA Defensive player Alex Caruso because defense wins championships. Looking back Team USA’s Olympic gold medals and bringing an all NBA 1st team defensive player like Caruso makes sense. The 1992 Dream Team included a First All Team NBA Defensive Player from the Chicago Bulls…Michael Jordan and one of the reason for Team USA success in Tokyo was First Team All NBA Defensive Player Jrue Holiday. I’m not comparing Caruso and Holiday to Jordan but again looking at the disaster in Athens - players not asked to join the team included all NBA first team defensive players like Ron Artest and Bruce Bowen and opts out included Jason Kidd and Kobe Bryant.
Given Holiday’s age and previous Team USA experience I would expect he would not play for Team USA this summer but still be a factor for Paris. Also given the deep run of the Celtics other All NBA defensive guards like Marcus Smart and Derrick White (both who played at the 2019 World Cup) may also be allowed to rest the 2023 World Cup so getting the commitments of Alex Caruso and Mikal Bridges make lot of sense on the team as both can play All NBA Defense and hit above 35% from 3PG range as a secondary option on offense.
3) LONG RANGE HELP
Reports also had Steve Kerr reaching out to career 42.5% three point shooter Desmond Bane for the 2023 World Cup. As head coach of the Golden State Warriors Kerr always has teams with great outside shooting and when Team USA brings an outside shooter (player who shoots over 40% in the NBA as a starter) they usually win Gold. Throughout Olympic history Mitch Richmond, Allan Houston, Ray Allen, Michael Redd, Klay Thompson, Khris Middleton, and Damian Lillard have all been a part of Team USA’s 3 point shooting that might be needed in a critical elimination game. The only Olympic year Team USA didn’t bring an outside shooter was 2004 where the starting backcourt Stephon Marbury and Allen Iverson both shot below 32% from three point range that season in the NBA.
In terms of the World Cup - at the 2019 World Cup Team USA brought two very good three pointers Joe Harris and Khris Middleton on the team but still finished 7th. In winning World Cup Golds in 2010 and 2014 Team USA had great three point shooters with Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, James Harden, and Danny Granger.
The biggest name to recruit for Team USA in Paris re outside shooting is Steph Curry who might play in his first Olympics in Paris under his head coach Steve Kerr. Curry likely won’t play in the World Cup given his age but Desmond Bane along with some recent Team USA Select Team members (Tyrese Haliburton, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson, Darius Garland) could help Team USA with ample three point shooting.
Because of the position of guard is deep for Paris (Tokyo members Holiday, Lillard, Booker all likely warrant roster spots if they wanted them) I could see recent All NBA Team members Bradley Beal (who missed the Tokyo Olympics due to COVID) , Donovan Mitchell, De’Aron Fox, and Trae Young all playing in Team USA’s backcourt at the World Cup this summer to solidify their roster spot for Paris.
4) BIG MAN DEFENSE
Grant Hill discussed getting the support of two players who have previous Team USA experience for Paris already. As discussed above I think Jayson Tatum was Number #1 and #2 was Bam Adebayo. With Adebayo’s run to the NBA Finals with Miami Heat- Team USA will likely rest Adebayo this summer.
The other recruit for Paris is NBA MVP Joel Embiid since Embiid became a US Citizen in 2022. Embiid could represent Team USA or France in 2024 Olympics and likely won’t make up his mind until later as indicated this week by Hill.
BamAdebayo proved in Tokyo his place in a long line of defensive big men for Team USA from David Robinson, Kevin Garnett, and more recently Draymond Green. Looking back at Athens 2004- All 1st Team NBA big guys Garnett and Ben Wallace did not play for Team USA and their interior defense was a vulnerability against talented international bigs.
An interesting stat in the 2022-2023 season - only 43% of NBA teams start an American born center and one American born center New Jersey Net Nic Claxton represents the US Virgin Islands on the FIBA level. Note also American born Karl Anthony Towns who could play center (listed as a starting PF for Timberwolves so not part of this stat) plays on an international level for the Dominican Republic. Most of these big men will be playing for their home countries on the international level and most of the teams in the FIBA World Cup have NBA starters as an inside presence.
It makes sense why according to reports Steve Kerr were recruiting NBA Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr for the World Cup 2023 to help shut down these players. Getting defensive post players is important for Team USA to winning in their draw too and why I think Team USA is also trying to use Evan Mobley this summer.
Team USA will likely face the NBA All Star caliber big men in half of their games at the FIBA World Cup. They will face 2 time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece in pool play and in the 2nd round (Round of 16) likely face All NBA player Domantas Sabonis and Jonas Valančiūnas from Lithuania and 2 time NBA All Star Nikola Vučević from Montenegro.
Looking even further ahead in the QFs there could be facing Serbia and 2 time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic or Dominican Republic led by NBA All Stars Karl Anthony Towns and Al Horford. Note if the Dominican Republic make the QF it could be a huge game for Team USA because the winner likely gets a trip to Paris 2024 if one of the World Cup favorites Canada also makes the semifinals.
Team USA could also look at Cleveland Cavs center Jarrett Allen (possibly one of 3 or 4 Cavs who might represent Team USA) or Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner (who started for Team USA at the 2019 World Cup) who both have received some All NBA Defensive Team votes in the last few years. I would assume Robert Williams III will not be available after the Celtics long run in the playoffs and that he returned from injury this season and Minnesota Timberwolves center Naz Reid ended the season with surgery and is a free agent this summer so likely also not available. Also besides the story line of Team USA recruiting Embiid for France getting rid of the two year commitments might be beneficial for Team USA to recruit Anthony Davis too because a Davis/Adebayo pairing would be a formidable pairing even if Embiid choses to play for France with Gobert and Wembanayama. Getting Jackson Jr, Allen, and Mobley some international experience at the World Cup would also help for depth for Paris.
I do think Walker Kessler, Tari Eason, Jalen Duren and Jabari Smith Jr are locks for the USA Select Team and I wouldn’t be surprised if they one of them such as Kessler got the call up before the World Cup like Joe Harris and Derrick White (2019 World Cup) and Keldon Johnson (Tokyo Olympics) had in previous cycles.
THE MISSION: AMERICAS PREVIEW FOR WORLD CUP
The mission for Team USA basketball in FIBA World Cup is to finish Top Two from the Americas
ICYMI: The big shocker was that Argentina didn’t qualify for the first time since 1982. Argentina is in a down cycle - they have had only three players in the NBA since 2019 and all of them ended up being waived before the end of this past season. The rest of North and South America are in an upswing so the mission for Team USA could be tough because a 7th place finish might not cut it.
Canada brings a full team of NBA players including a backcourt of Jamal Murray and Shai Gregorius Alexander (first team all NBA in 2023) and if they want to bring NCAA Basketball player of the year Zach Edey they can too. Canada might have the toughest path to QFs having to get past France and a tough Latvia team led by Kristaps Porziņģis just to make the Round of 16 where they should meet defending FIBA World Cup champ Spain.
Dominican Republic could easily get an Olympic spot with Horford, Towns, Chris Duarte likely making up a front court and young backcourt of Jean Montero and Lester Quinones (4 of the 5 have played in the NBA and 19 year old Montero likely will get a chance soon). DR should be favored to advance out of a tough pool with games against Italy (likely without Danilo Gallinari), host Philippines (led by fmr NBA Sixth Man of the Year Jordan Clarkson), and Angola.
Mexico might have the toughest path in the World Cup needing to beat Lithuania and Montenegro to make Round of 16 and then would likely face Greece and USA in the QFs but could feature UCLA All American Jaime Jaquez Jr. and a few other players with multiple years of NBA experience. Puerto Rico, Brazil and Venezuela have a good path to the Round of 16 on paper as they face first time FIBA World Cup participants (South Sudan, Georgia, Cape Verde) in their pools. Keep an eye South Sudan (which is in Pool B with Puerto Rico) being a Cinderella story at the FIBA World Cup 2023) as Sudanese-American refugees and NBA players like JT Thor and possibly Bol Bol could make up a very formidable team that Luol Deng has put together.
Bottom line for the World Cup: Team USA can put together a roster that is good enough to win Gold but also Team USA has a luxury where they might be able to rest Jayson Tatum and still accomplish the primary objective - qualifying for Paris 2024. Other countries like Serbia (Jokic) Greece (Giannis) do not have that luxury and if these countries want to make the Olympics they need to play all their superstars to play in the World Cup and Olympics.
Extra notes
Some players who could warrant consideration for Paris 2024 but either injury concerns, long playoffs runs, or free agency likely will not be on the World Cup team in 2023. Mentioned them all here - some were mentioned above.
Guards (8) : Marcus Smart*, Derrick White*, Kentavius Caldwell-Pope, Fred Van Vleet, Kyrie Irving*, Tyler Herro*,Cade Cunningham , LaMelo Ball,
Forwards (5): Michael Porter Jr, Jerami Grant*, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Keldon Johnson*
Centers (2): Robert Williams III, Naz Reid
Candidates for the USA Select Team (usually players with 3 years or less of NBA experience)
Walker Kessler, Jalen Duren, Tari Eason, Jalen Green, Jaden Ivey, Ayo Dosunmu, Bones Hyland, Keegan Murray, Jalen Williams, Jabari Smith Jr, Jaden McDaniels, Herbert Jones, Trey Murphy III, Corey Kispert, Jaylin Williams, Jalen Suggs, AJ Griffin.