Some Scary Bracket Math that Make the Case for Expansion
Men's Bracketology March 4, 2025
It is March…
Matt Norlander had a great interview with NCAA SVP Dan Gavitt. It is well worth watching or listening to the interview on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Here is the YouTube link.
A few things that I took away and thoughts on expansion after the latest bracketology.
The Committee has been briefed and ready for a historic amount of SEC Teams:
Dan Gavitt on his role in the room: “Be a resource to put things in historical context and what decisions could be precedent-setting for the future.”
Gavitt confirmed to Norlander: “Likelihood of (Big East) record being tied or broken is very high given the strength of depth of that great conference.”
Number 1 and Number 2 Seeds could be decided on Sunday
Gavitt mentioned the Committee will likely have 5 or 6 brackets on Saturday night because the Seed List might change because of the SEC, Big Ten, A-10, American, and possibly even the Ivy League Championships that will take place on Sunday.
Is WAB the best tool to compare teams?
Gavitt on WAB (Wins Above Bubble) after mentioning it has been a reference for the Selection Committee “informally” the last few years: “(It is a) way to try, as a result based metric, to compare resumes between teams.” “(WAB) has very interesting to compare teams with that metric and even during Selection meeting with that metric.”
This was great I do wonder if the Committee would also informally use Evan Mikawaya Resume Metrics. The one conference that could benefit from the use of resume metrics is the ACC. His metric ranks North Carolina, Wake Forest, and SMU into the field and you can see when comparing teams - these three teams have done great in the games they should win as they are a combined 15-3 in Q2 (Wake and UNC both 5-0 in Q2 games) and they are a combined 43-4 in Q3 and Q4 games (Wake has 3 Q3 losses and SMU does not have a Q3/Q4 loss). According to Evan Mikawaya’s data this stacks up well vs bubble teams Ohio State, Arkansas, or Oklahoma who all have 12+ losses.
How they could influence the field:
SEC could still get 13 teams even with Arkansas and Oklahoma’s losses in the last week.
Oklahoma is a unicorn of a profile but if the Sooners win at Texas this week there is a case they could get in the field going 5-13 in conference play plus winning one SEC tournament game could get into the NCAA Tournament.
They have impressive out of conference wins over Michigan, Louisville, and Arizona and could have about 7 wins over teams in the NCAA Tournament field. There is still a possiblity at the end of the week Michigan and Louisville could be the regular season champion in their respective conference.
Oklahoma’s resume metrics put them in bubble territory but a similar comparision would be the Iowa State 1992 team that got in with only 5 conference wins (5-9 in Big 8) and few big wins.
#1 and #2 seeds: SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 Tournament Champion
Tennessee has the 4th #1 seed thanks to their buzzer-beating win over Alabama at home but I think that 4th #1 seed might end up being the SEC Tournament winner if Auburn doesn’t win it.
As of now - I could see the final #2 spot going to the Big Ten Tournament winner if it is not Michigan State or the Big 12 Tournament winner if it is not Houston. There is also a chance St. John’s could end up moving up to a #2 seed if they win out (winning at Marquette and the Big East Tournament) but I think the Johnnies’ preference might be more regional and what ever will get them to play the Sweet 16 in Newark, NJ.
Mid-Majors and WAB:
Currently the WAB helps Drake (MVC regular season champion) over UC San Diego (likely Big West regular season champion) and VCU (likely A-10 regular season champion). All three teams might have various data points that are strong for inclusion and VCU might actually pick up two more Quad 1 wins if Saint Joseph’s and Colorado State continue to finish strong. I think all three of these teams if they do not win their conference tournament would be on the bubble with currently the last 5 teams I have in the field (Indiana, Arkansas, Xavier, Oklahoma, North Carolina) and the first Four out of the field (Ohio State, Nebraska, Boise State, Colorado State).
Note the only team from the first Four Out, next Four Out, and considered list who has a higher WAB than UC San Diego or VCU is Wake Forest and their at-large consideration took a big hit after last night’s game at Duke.
Note the first Four Out play each other this week (Nebraska at Ohio State Tuesday and Colorado State at Boise State Friday) so that might be able to leapfrog ahead of a few teams this week but the overall next Four Out and considered seems very weak without bid-stealers. However early predictions show that there could be three bid-stealers this year so life could get rough on the bubble soon.
Bonus: Gavitt on NCAA Expansion
Gavitt gave one of the best responses to expanding the NCAA Tournament explaining how he has evolved it.
Gavitt broke down the analysis of expanding the NCAA Tournament: “Expansion in a modest level is complex, more complex than I think recognized and reported. It's expensive because of additional team travel, per diem, game operations, but also the basketball performance funds, the units that are earned throughout the men's and women's basketball championships." As Matt Norlander pointed out his article for CBSSports.com reducing the units is a non-starter and it might an area where both major conferences and small conferences agree since winning an opening round game is equivalent to winning a first round game so in 2023 when FDU made the second round after winning an opening round and beating the #1 seed Purdue the NEC was paid out like FDU made the Sweet 16.
Gavitt on expansion and the most compelling argument for it: “I’m more compelled if at all that the highest college basketball has gotten much more compressed and that happened very recently as a result of conference realignment you have fewer conferences with much larger memberships and in many of those conferences that have had several successful historical programs now have coalesced into four conferences that either 16 or 18 schools in size.”
Gavitt on expansion: “My thinking has evolved over the last two or three years around this topic…I’m not necessarily sold on why it expand but we need to look at the future and our current membership looks like… I think it’s important to keep the Tournament contemporary and relevant based on what is going on in college athletics.”
I took Gavitt’s expansion comments which I agreed with throughly from a personal experience and turned it into a math problem.
When the Pac-12 comes back in 2027 there will likely only be 36 at-large spots.
36 AT-LARGE SPOTS
22 to 24 AT-LARGE SPOTS TO BIG TEN AND SEC
6 AT-LARGE SPOTS TO BIG 12
6 to 8 AT-LARGE SPOTS TO THE REST OF 29 CONFERENCES
22 to 24 AT-LARGE SPOTS TO BIG TEN AND SEC
SEC and Big Ten schools are raising more money in NIL and getting more money from television contracts so they should be able to maintain their current pace of putting forward around 25 teams worthy of inclusion in the field each year with only two automatic spots. This year the SEC has 14 teams and the Big Ten have 11 teams who are listed by most bracketologists as in the Field of 68 or First First First Out so could theoretically could take up 23 of the 37 at-large berths this year. .
6 AT-LARGE SPOTS TO BIG 12
On the men’s side , the Big 12 conference , one of the best two conferences in college basketball the last ten seasons according to KenPom, will likely take half of these spots on yearly basis with programs like Kansas, Houston, BYU, Baylor, Iowa State, Arizona, and Texas Tech also spending significantly in NIL. In the last ten seasons, the Big 12 have average nearly 6 at-large bids and two times they didn’t get six at-large berths they had the NIT Champion (2017 TCU, 2019 Texas).
WHAT’S LEFT: 6 TO 8 AT-LARGE SPOTS FOR 29 CONFERENCES
That leaves 6 at-large spots for 29 other conferences and I have yet to account for powerhouses Duke, North Carolina, UConn, Gonzaga and a school like Louisville, that spent according to reports nearly $5 million dollars on this year’s roster, plus St. John’s who has a billionaire donor providing matching funds to their NIL to take up some of these final at-large spots.
BOTTOM LINE: 26 CONFERENCES WILL BECOME ONE-BID LEAGUES VERY SOON
As you can see you are getting to a point in history where the 36 at-large spots could just be bought by the programs who spend the most NIL money each year. The inclusivity of March Madness might be slowly dying unless the NCAA creates more-at large spots. Even though I see NCAA March Madness with conference tournaments as expanded 300 team field as Rodger Sherman described - you could imagine it also as the FA Cup (that allows all 750+ football clubs in London to participate in a single-elimination tournament), were to only allow in 68 teams with 36 at-large spots. All of the at-large spots would only go to the Premier and Championship League (the top two tier divisions) much like the SEC and Big Ten.
Expanding to 76 teams, might be a simple solution, to keep some conferences more relevant (especially basketball only conferences like Big East, A-10, West Coast Conference plus G5 and FCS football leagues) as they figure out NIL and revenue sharing in the upcoming years. College basketball is a better product for television when all the power conferences and the mid-majors like A-10 and MWC are getting multiple teams in the NCAA tournament and very relevant early round and quarterfinals match-ups in their conference tournament means a lot to entry to the Big Dance.
Matt Norlander brought up to his co-host Gary Parrish on Monday’s Eye on College Basketball that St. John’s might not get a #1 seed despite the fact they could finish 30-4 with four more wins and would have won the Big East outright regular season title and tournament crown with only have four losses by a combined seven points. Without research, Norlander and Parrish were correct they would be the first team from a power conference to win 30 games that won the egular season title outright and conference tournament not to to get the number one seed. (Note: Arizona 2017 and Missouri 2012 (#2 seeds) entered NCAA Tournament meeting the 30 win threshold and won their conference tournament title but either shared the conference title (Arizona 2017) or finished second (Missouri 2012)).
You might ask why this is happening and in the last three seasons especially in 2022 and 2024 with much more NIL, the data (KenPom) shows the ACC operating more closely to level of the Mountain West, West Coast Conference, and A-10 then to the level of the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 despite featuring Duke this year, two Final Four teams (NC State 2024, Miami 2023) and three .
An expanded tournament last season would have benefitted the Big East last season as Seton Hall, St. John’s, and probably Providence would have been in the field and Villanova and Butler would have been in the conversation headed into the Big East Tournament making every game in that tournament feel like must-win.
This season the A-10 would be more relevant as teams hovering around a Top 75 NET ranking might be worthy of inclusion (George Mason, Dayton, Saint Joseph’s).
Others can point out a possible four-bid Mountain West Conference or a multi-bid West Coast Conference as the strength of the mid-majors but five of the seven schools vying for at-large spots in these conferences (Gonzaga, San Diego State, Boise State, Utah State, Colorado State) will be in the new Pac-12 by 2027, which could render their current leagues one-bid conferences in the near future.