The Bubble Shrunk Yesterday and there could be more significant shrinkage in the next two days
3 bids were likely taken away from the bubble yesterday
Pac 12 conference will get 3 NCAA bids as Colorado will face Oregon in the final Pac 12 Men’s Conference Tournament tonight (FOX, 9 PMET)
Mississippi State demolishing of #1 seed Tenneessee in the SEC Tournament likely locked in Mississippi State’s spot in NCAA tourney based on season’s resume. Two wins over Tennessee plus a win over Auburn (the highest seed left in SEC tournament so presume SEC tourney champ) plus a NET that jumped up # 32 after the win should place the Bulldogs in the tournament.
New Mexico beat Colorado State and moved New Mexico’s NET moved up to 22. More importantly New Mexico got their fourth Q1 win and 7th win over the likely NCAA tournament field likely securing the Lobos’ spot in NCAA Tournament.
Taking those 3 spots away there are now 13 bubble teams competing for 3 to 6 at-large spots. As the committee starts stacking and comparing bubble teams today as Chair Charles McClelland mentioned in an interviews yesterday they know will monitor if more more at-large sports become open or they go to teams who earn automatic berths.
The 3 spots that could go away
ACC: All eyes are on the Wolfpack. Can the NC State Wolfpack beat North Carolina in the ACC title game tonight (ESPN, 830 PMET) to finish their run through the ACC tournament of winning 5 games in 5 days to make the Field of 68? NC State which had 3 Q1/Q2 wins heading to ACC tournament has picked up 3 Q1/Q2 wins in 3 days by defeating (Syracuse, Duke, Virginia in OT) but will need 4th victory over one of the best 4 teams in the country North Carolina to get into NCAA Tournament.
American: All eyes are on the Owls. If Florida Atlantic wins the conference tournament on Sunday at 315 PMET- another at-large team gets in the field. The committee will operate with South Florida in the field because they were AAC regular season champs. South Florida and Florida Atlantic play in the AAC semifinals today as South Florida plays #4 UAB and FAU plays #11 Temple. With wins they set up a rematch or a regular season meeting where South Florida beat FAU on South Florida’s home court.
(AAC SFS: South Florida vs UAB, 3 PMET followed by FAU vs Temple, 530PMET, ESPN2)
SEC: Buzz Williams and the Texas A&M Aggies will look to make their 3rd straight SEC Tournament finals today with a win over the Florida Gators. In 2022 Texas A&M was left out in the field after losing in the SEC finals and In 2023 Texas A&M despite the great run in the SEC tournament was given a lower seed than expected #7. This remarks made Joe Lunardi to quip on ESPN this week- “And then we’re assuming the committee takes into consideration a Sunday afternoon game. And frankly, there have been times where they have not.”. McClelland did respond to this comment forcefully in the above interview saying they will be counting Sunday afternoon games but Texas A&M is the enigma that makes bubble teams who they are come March.
A&M has 7Q1 wins which includes wins over Kentucky (2), Tennessee, and Iowa State who all could be Top 12 teams according to the committee based on seeds. A&M also has 5 Q3 losses which include being swept by Arkansas (NET #115) and losing at Vanderbilt (NET #202). What factors will the committee look as the most important this year could determine if the Aggies get in
(SEC SFS: Mississippi State vs Auburn, 1 PMET followed by Texas A&M vs Florida, 330 PMET, ESPN)
(SEC Finals 1 PMET on ESPN)
The Committee likely has about 14 Bubble Teams for these 3 to 6 At-Large Spots
10 come from 3 conferences: Big East, ACC, Big 12
Big East (4): Seton Hall, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova
ACC (3): Virginia, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest
Big 12 (3): Oklahoma, TCU, Kansas State
MVC (1): Indiana State
Pac 12 (1): Colorado/Oregon loser
Big Ten (1): Michigan State
SEC (1): Texas A&M
I have watched every Selection Sunday show and one of my favorites is the NCAA Selection Chairman telling the CBS crew and then a few minutes later the ESPN crew why they chose certain teams and why they kept certain teams out.
The following are cited the most and here is how the bubble teams break down
1) Non Conference Strength of Schedule: This is where the committee makes a statement and says we want teams to being playing the best teams in November and December out of conference. This is a point I expect they will make in 2024 selection process as more conference become super-conferences and play 20 games they might make a point that playing a non conference of the worst 50 teams in Division 1 and dominating them is frowned upon.
Favors: Texas A&M (#21) Michigan State (#40)
Bad News: Oklahoma (#271), TCU (#328), Pittsburgh (#344)
2) Bad Losses: Now the Committee uses the metric Q3 or Q4 losses but this is the Jekyll and Hyde factor for teams on the bubble. What team are you -Villanova? The team that beat ACC’s best team North Carolina in the Bahamas in November or the team that ten days earlier lost to Penn Quakers (NET #211) and one of the Ivy League’s worst teams this year.
Favors: Providence, TCU, Oklahoma (0 losses)
Bad News: Texas A&M (5), Villanova (3), Pittsburgh (2)
And then there is the curious case of COLORADO
Colorado is an interesting case since even though they have ZERO Q3/Q4 losses they did lose on a neutral court to Florida State, at UCLA, at Arizona State, at Cal. Three of the four losses just sneak in to the Q2 losses but all four losses came to teams that were not considered for at all for a 2024 NCAA Tournament bid
3A )Big Wins: Now the Committee has the metric Q1 or Q1/Q2 wins but the best way to get off the bubble is having a multiple wins over Top 10 team ranked by the committee will go far.
Favors: Kansas State, Texas A&M, Providence, Michigan State, Villanova
Bad News: St. John’s, Colorado, Indiana State, Virginia
3B) Q1/Q2 Win Percentage - This was brought up in the last two years with inclusion of non power conference teams like Wyoming 2022 and Nevada 2023 and exclusion of Texas A&M and Rutgers 2023. The committee chairman discussed win percentage in Q1/Q2 opportunities to balance power conference teams vs non power conference teams.
This win percentage is why Florida Atlantic is presumed in as an at large bid. FAU has gone 9-5 (65% win percentage) of Q1/Q2 games including a big neutral court win against Arizona. Even though FAU has two Q4 lossses at home to Bryant (NET #164) and on the road at Florida Gulf Coast (Net #246) they will be invited to the Field of 68 again. Compare to that to NC State who has to win the ACC tournament to get an NCAA bid -one of the reasons is that NC State has gone 8-13 in Q1/Q2 games (38% win percentage)
This win percentage looking at Q1 and Q2 games is something that could be beneficial for Indiana State. Indiana State did not win at Alabama or at Michigan State in a chance to get a signature over a Power 6 team and in a schedule that 70% conference games because of 20 regular season games) they only 8 of the 23 MVC games counted as Q1/Q2 games.
Texas A&M: 61%
Seton Hall: 56%
Pittsburgh: 52%
INDIANA STATE: 50%
Colorado: 50%*
Virginia: 50%
Villanova: 42%
Oregon: 42%*
Oklahoma: 42%
Wake Forest: 42%
Kansas State: 41%
Providence: 41%
St. John’s: 40%
Michigan State: 36%**
TCU: 33%
*assuming lose in Pac 12 Championships
**Michigan State does have H2H win over Indiana State
4) NET Rankings -
This will be the 5th tournament that the NCAA tournament has used their NET rankings. Normally the Top 35 are safe. Exceptions were made in Year 1 when not NC State 2019 (NET #33 ) and Clemson 2019 (NET #35) because of two aforementioned factors poor non conference SOS (NC State) and lack of Q1 wins/winning percentage of Q1/Q2 games (Clemson). Teams with low NET rankings (#70 or lower) can in the tournament but usually that is offset with a high amount of big wins/Q1 wins (St. John’s 2019, Michigan State 2021, Rutgers 2022)
Favors: Colorado (#24) Michigan State (#25) Indiana State (#30) St. John’s (#34)
Bad News: Virginia (#55) Providence (#57) Seton Hall (#66) Kansas State (#70)
I am watching TCU is ranked #43 in NET and beat Oklahoma H2H this week in the Big 12 tourney to seemingly solidify their spot. They would be an interesting case to be left out like NC State in 2019 to make the point re non Conference SOS and the Big 12 which even Scott Van Pelt singled out on his show two weeks ago as Clemson’s coach Brad Brownell called out the Big 12 for manipulating the NET rankings.
ONE FINAL NOTE
16 of the 32 regular season conference champs lost in their conference tournament including 7 on Saturday. That number could increase today as at halftime both Vermont and Princeton are losing in their respective conference tournaments.
Obviously the power conferences and MWC/WCC will get their regular season champion (Tennessee, Arizona, Utah State) in the NCAA tournament. There is a chance that Indiana State gets an at large berth and UC Irvine (Big West) or Princeton (Ivy) could be in-line for NIT berth.
There has been lamenting that the NIT is not giving the regular season champion of any conference a berth this year but nearly half the field would have made up from regular season qualifiers if we get only 4 upsets today in 10 conference tournaments (AAC + 9 one bid leagues) in the next two days. Giving the NIT the opportunity to pick 20 at large teams it can really show the NCAA truly what a 80 or 96 team tournament and in an expanded NCAA Tournament Indiana State, Princeton (if they lose), UC Irvine, Grand Canyon, and USF would likely have done enough for at at-large berth an expanded field as well as 8 bubble teams that might be left out in 2024 because of a strong mix of bubble teams.