#1 Seeds (Auburn, Duke, Houston, SEC Team #2)
The dream of the SEC having three #1 seeds is likely over as the Houston Cougars and HC Kelvin Sampson look to be on their way to locking up a #1 seed for the third straight year.
#4 Houston (24-4, 16-1 in conf. play) won at least a share of the Big 12 by winning at Texas Tech Monday Night, thereby avenging their only loss in the Big 12. With three Big 12 games, Houston could become the first team in the Big 12 to win 18+ games in the regular season.
After last night’s win, Houston is now 16-4 in Q1/Q2 games and one of three teams in the top three of all the quality metrics (KenPom, Torvik, and BPI) used by the NCAA Selection Committee. The other two teams are #1 Auburn and #2 Duke. They all look like locks as #1 seeds with less than three weeks to go until Selection Sunday.
The 4th #1 seed then would be between #3 Florida, #5 Tennessee, and #6 Alabama. As of now, I am giving the slight edge to #3 Florida who has a road win over #1 Auburn. The good news for #6 Alabama (who I put at #5 overall) is they will have a three-game stretch to finish out the regular season where they will play at #5 Tennessee (March 1), host #3 Florida (March 5), and travel to #1 Auburn (March 8) where they could make their case for fourth #1 seed.
“Soft Bubble”
When you try your hand at bracketology, you follow other bracketologists and college basketball reporters. Many were upset over Seth Davis’s article about expanding the NCAA Tournament and pointed to the soft bubble this year as an example of why NCAA Tournament expansion is the wrong move.
I think that their argument is flawed and mainly I am pro-expansion (it is inevitable it will happen) after the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
The argument is flawed because when doing bracketology throughout the season, you are dealing with ZERO bid thieves. Most mid-major regular season champions who are most deserving of the at-large berth are in the field as the automatic bid until the conference tournament final like Indiana State was in 2024.
In reality, when Selection Sunday comes the Committee will be dealing with at least TWO bid thieves with possibly another THIRD or FOURTH bid thief coming from a mid-major conference tournament final that day (The American or A-10).
In the last five NCAA tournaments, there were 4 bid thieves in 2019 with 5 bid thieves in 2024. Bid thieves are not new when the NCAA Tournament first expanded to 64 teams in 1985 - 4 bid thieves made the field. The average number of bid thieves have nearly doubled since the original expansion to 68 teams in 2011 and this year looks like we will have that again.
This year, 7 conference tournaments are pretty ripe for bid thieves.
The ACC and MWC will have a bubble team/bid thief in the semifinals and Missouri Valley, Big West, A-10, American, and WCC have a likely regular-season champ that deserves at-large consideration and will face a bubble team/ bid thief in the tournament finals.
Bid thieves historically come from mid-major conferences and steal spots from other mid-major teams. In the last five NCAA Tournaments, bid thieves have prevented mid-major programs like 2019 UNC-Greensboro, 2022 Dayton, and 2024 Indiana State from making the tournament when they deserved it given out they performed that year.
Expansion to 76 teams for the 2024 NCAA Tournament would have helped a mid-major conference like Missouri Valley get in both Drake and Indiana State but the main beneficiary would been three Big East teams (Seton Hall, St. John’s, Providence) in a conference ranked #2 by Ken Pom featuring back-to-back champion UConn. The ACC which had three teams make the Elite Eight, likely would have had two more teams (Pittsburgh and Wake Forest) in the NCAA Tournament.
So this is why I agree with Seth Davis on the expansion to 76 teams. There will likely be 3 or 4 bid thieves come Selection Sunday and the teams that could be squeezed would be San Diego State who has a neutral court win over Houston and UC San Diego who has a road win at Utah State. They both deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament this year especially when there is a good chance as mid-major teams both will likely have an entirely new roster next year.
Below is my latest projection… Of note, Xavier is the last team in the field on the strength of a head-to-head win over Wake Forest. Xavier faces a must-win on Saturday vs Creighton to help boost their resume. Every team that is a #9 seed or lower is a “bubble team” right now (full list below) with three weeks left and needs to avoid bad losses. That list includes two-time defending champion UConn and Gonzaga looking to make their 10th straight Sweet 16.
By Conference Breakdown of Bubble Teams
SEC: 4 ( #10 Vanderbilt, #10 Oklahoma, #11 Arkansas, #12 Texas)
Big Ten: 3 (#9 Illinois, #10 Nebraska ,#12 Indiana)
Big 12: 2 (#9 Baylor, #10 West Virginia)
Big East: 2 (#9 UConn, #12 Xavier)
WCC: 1 (#9 Gonzaga)
MWC: 1 (#12 San Diego State)
In by Auto but Bubble Teams too
MVC: #11 Drake
Big West: #11 UC San Diego
A-10: #11 VCU
Last Four In: San Diego State, Texas, Indiana, Xavier
First Four Out: Wake Forest, Ohio State, Boise State, North Carolina
Next Four Out: SMU, Villanova, Georgia, TCU
Also Considered: San Francisco, Santa Clara, Cincinnati, Colorado State.
After losses last week, George Mason and UC Irvine will both likely need to win their conference automatic berths and if Santa Clara, San Francisco, and Colorado State lose this week to Gonzaga and Utah State, respectively they will likely join Mason and UC Irvine.
Out of the First Four Out/Teams Considered - I do like Ohio State, Boise State, North Carolina, and possibly WCC teams (San Francisco, Santa Clara at the expense of Gonzaga) to play themselves into the field over the next two weeks of the regular season.